It's pretty fair at this point to say that the race for the Republican nomination has become The Donald Trump Show™. There were a few chinks in his armor the other night at the debate, in particular when Carly Fiorina shot invisible beams of pure hatred at him and put him in his place. The subtle little eye roll at Trump's subsequent clumsy attempt at flattery was just icing on the cake.
For most of the debate the other candidates treated Trump like your drunk, loudmouthed, vaguely racist uncle (we've all got one) at Thanksgiving. And it was clear that Trump was out of his league, details-wise. But what these other guys are missing is that none of that matters. A candidates' ability to cite facts and figures or deliver canned lines about their records or the future of America, blah blah blah. All of that is what typical politicians do. Good ones, like everyone on that stage, do it very well. But Trump is not a politician. He is, as was said in the debate, an entertainer. He is not coming at this from a politician's point of view; he is coming at it like reality television.
Trump's antics did not play well in the Reagan library, where the debate audience consisted of 500 establishment high rollers. That's not his crowd. He got only tepid applause for most of the night, and at times looked distinctly awkward, as when he tried to "high five" Ben Carson, only to have it descend into some sort of weird handshake/victory sign. I'm not sure. I'm not sure Trump knows. He was just doing his best to save face.
But Trump soldiered on, despite the lack of support in the room, because he was playing to the cameras. To his legions of adoring fans, it doesn't matter that the snobs looked down on him. In fact it probably helps him, making him even more sympathetic and therefore likable. They like watching Trump act like a bully to the GOP Old Guard (for example, spending the entire night laying the smackdown on Jab Bush like an errant baby brother, to the point of provoking a tantrum when Trump criticized Jeb's REAL brother). Most thinking people would say that Trump came off as a misogynistic ass, but a big chunk of the American electorate doesn't meet that standard.
Despite the mainstream media's desperate attempts to whip up controversy over Trump's failure to correct a racist yahoo in the audience, his support seems undiminished. His poll numbers, at least nationally, have only grown, at least according to Breitbart. But Carly Fiorina has leaped to second place, and Fox has her ahead in New Hampshire. A chink in Trump's armor indeed.
I think we're going to see Trump flare out, the only question is when. My hunch is that it will be before any actual votes are cast, i.e. before February 1, 2016, the date of the Iowa Caucuses. There are 135 days between now and then, so we could be in for another four months of the Trump Show. But I don't think it will be that long. I bet it's over by Thanksgiving.