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The Crisis in Syria


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#1 Manoka

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Posted 22 November 2016 - 10:33 AM

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As has been stated before, there is a tremendous human rights crisis occurring in Syria. At least 300,000 people are dead, the majority, close to 200,000, innocent civilians, predominately killed by the Syrian government forces. At least 12 million are displaced, a mix of refugees and internally displaced person's, the name for people who are essentially refugees but that haven't fled the country, yet. [1][2][3][4] It's worth nothing that this was out of a country with 22 million people, as over half the population is under siege by the government. As the Syrian refugees are beginning to run out of food, there is expected to be mass casualties or fleeing of the country begin to occur, as the country in the midst of war has largely been unable to produce goods like it would have ordinarily, and human rights activists trying to proliferate food and other goods are repeatedly barred from entering or straight up killed. From the bombing of the white Helmets to the destruction of a U.N. convoy, Russia has been predominately responsible for these sorts of attacks on humanitarian aid groups, but the Syrian government is no angel, either. The war has been going on for nearly 5 years, when Assad began brutal crackdowns on protesters in the Arab spring, and the resulting massacres caused members of Assad's own military to defect in order to protect the innocent civilians. 
 
The conflict of course started as a part of the Arab Spring, a push for democracy in which Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, and many other countries began to demand that their governments represent the people. After many peaceful protests and very minor fighting, many of these government leaders stepped down or were overthrown, granting many countries in the middle east rights they had never seen before. Feeling threatened, Assad overreacted to simple protests, and after killed thousands of his own people in blatant massacres, a large section of the military began to defect. Simultaneously losing support from his own military forces and people, whilst being attacked, Assad's regime began to crumble, and it looked like peace was coming to Syria, like it had for the rest of the members of the Arab spring. 
 
That is, until Russia intervened. From bombing the Syrian people to providing weapons and logistical support to the dying Assad regime, their new efforts were bolstered as the regime which has none of it's own logistical supplies to sustain itself is kept alive from outside influences. To make matters worse, Russia has threatened any foreign groups trying to intervene, humanitarian assistance or otherwise, going as far to bomb these units, including a U.S. base in Syria. They've deployed warships, including some with nuclear weapons, to try and shoot down American aircraft and have more or less threatened or straight up attacked anyone trying to intervene in the country. [1][2][3] The Assad regime and Russia have thus far killed more civilians than ISIS, and ISIS only began operations in the region as of 2014, 3 years after the war started in 2011. ISIS is far from the worse actor in the region, and the majority of the rebels fight to oust the corrupt government and for democracy. 
 
Now, fighting has picked up again. [1] With many at their breaking point, it's expected that the syrian civilians will soon face and unprecedented humanitarian crisis, that is not only the worst the world has seen since WWII, but that will escalate even further with the deaths of millions. The question is, ED, what will we do? Sit back and let it unfold, or try and intervene?[/quote]
 




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#2 the rebel

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Posted 22 November 2016 - 12:09 PM

To be brutally honest what is happening is very similar to what Israel has done numerous times to the Gaza Strip and West Bank.
Both situations are terrible for the civilians who have to live through it and most if the time through no fault of their own. But it reeks in hypocrisy to denounce one and call for answers to solve it while excusing the other (yes its a sly comment at your known excusing of Israel in past topics).

The only way I see this ending is if the supporters of the rebels within Syria tell them that they must come to the table and work on peace with Assad and all preconditions of his instant removal from power is dropped because he isn't going anywhere now.

That is the only option left refusing that makes no winners and just losers (those being the civilians) and delaying that means the deaths of civilians lays at both sides feet.

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#3 Manoka

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Posted 22 November 2016 - 12:51 PM

So now you're going to just randomly bring in Israel, wat?

 

Okay well, even if we compare the two conflicts, nowhere near as many people have died, and most of the deaths have been by PLO backed forces. The terrorists target civilian populations, even their own, in order to try and control them and strike fear in to them to gain control over the territory. 

 

As far as it goes I think it can be done if Assad is ousted from power and the citizens are allowed to establish a democracy. The way we get Russia on board is to give them as sliver of land in Syria and to give them access to trade routes in the region.

 



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#4 the rebel

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Posted 22 November 2016 - 02:39 PM

The window for Assad losing power was when Russia wasn't involved, so its now closed and the piecemeal you stated doesn't matter to Russia as they already have land and trade routes allowed to them by their ally.

Assad isn't going anywhere and until the West and the rebels realise that civilians are going to die and they will also be culpable for their deaths.

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#5 King Biscuit

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Posted 22 November 2016 - 03:56 PM

The window for Assad losing power was when Russia wasn't involved, so its now closed and the piecemeal you stated doesn't matter to Russia as they already have land and trade routes allowed to them by their ally.

 

Not to mention the massive base they are building there.

 

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Posted 22 November 2016 - 05:13 PM

Can't we just kill this guy?

 

I don't mean that flippantly. Yes, I am talking about assassinating the leader of a sovereign state. That is no small thing. It conjures up all kinds of moral and ethical — not to mention legal — questions. And then there is that pesky little executive order banning assassination. Damn you, Gerald Ford.

 

But put all that aside. From a geopolitical point of view, Assad's death would probably be a good thing. He is an evil man. He deserves to die. I realize that I am in no position to pass such a judgment on any fellow human being, but seriously he needs to die. The world would be infinitely better off without him. That said, "He needed killin'" is not a valid justification in any state but Texas, and probably wouldn't fly at the Hague. But still. Come on. It's Assad. Let's just kill him.

 

Certainly it would not be easy. Life is not an action movie. But surely it must be within the capabilities of the United States? Surely there are only a limited number of places where Assad can usually be found. He must have to drive places from time to time. If the will was there, it seems to me that an opportunity would present itself. One cruise missile could save the world a lot of heartache.

 

Or start a war. Either way.



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#7 Manoka

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Posted 22 November 2016 - 05:38 PM

The window for Assad losing power was when Russia wasn't involved, so its now closed and the piecemeal you stated doesn't matter to Russia as they already have land and trade routes allowed to them by their ally.

Assad isn't going anywhere and until the West and the rebels realise that civilians are going to die and they will also be culpable for their deaths.

Wat...?

 

Anyways the idea is that we'd remove all the international pressure on them if they pulled out of Ukraine in Syria. If we give them what they really want, black sea ports and Mediterranean ports, they really have no other need for the rest of the territory. So they'll give up and be happy. We convince them they don't need total control over the territory and let them keep these small parcels of land in exchange for allowing us to do humanitarian things and being their friends. 


Edited by Manoka, 22 November 2016 - 05:47 PM.


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#8 Manoka

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Posted 22 November 2016 - 05:41 PM

Can't we just kill this guy?

 

I don't mean that flippantly. Yes, I am talking about assassinating the leader of a sovereign state. That is no small thing. It conjures up all kinds of moral and ethical — not to mention legal — questions. And then there is that pesky little executive order banning assassination. Damn you, Gerald Ford.

 

But put all that aside. From a geopolitical point of view, Assad's death would probably be a good thing. He is an evil man. He deserves to die. I realize that I am in no position to pass such a judgment on any fellow human being, but seriously he needs to die. The world would be infinitely better off without him. That said, "He needed killin'" is not a valid justification in any state but Texas, and probably wouldn't fly at the Hague. But still. Come on. It's Assad. Let's just kill him.

 

Certainly it would not be easy. Life is not an action movie. But surely it must be within the capabilities of the United States? Surely there are only a limited number of places where Assad can usually be found. He must have to drive places from time to time. If the will was there, it seems to me that an opportunity would present itself. One cruise missile could save the world a lot of heartache.

 

Or start a war. Either way.

The U.S. very rarely assassinates people. We've got delta force, Navy seals, but we go in for kill or capture missions even when we kill people. We also like leaving people in charge we can understand how to broker trade agreements with them or predict their moves. We likely have so many moles in his organization that we know his every move before he makes them, so that's more valuable than a dead assad. At least until we've taken over most of the territory. 

 

It's usually more beneficial to leave them alive and let them discredit themselves, make stupid mistakes and generally leak information to us. Some new guy being in charge makes things more difficult. Unlike putin he's fairly incompetent so he's "safe" to have as a leader until we overthrow his regime. It's like a cockroach; you kill one, a dozen more take his place. Better to leave a dumb cockroach in power than one that might become smarter if he takes his place.

 

However, after we've taken over Syria if we decide that uh, he should "commit suicide" by accidentally being shot in the head, much like Hitler did several miles away from his supposed hiding place than, I would imagine this would be acceptable. 

 

 

On that note, One interesting conspiracy theory may be that Osama Bin Laden was never killed. I mean, we never found a body. He may instead be secretly being interrogated in some secret blacksight in the red sea on an oil rig or boat or what have you. How come no-one ever brings up that conspiracy? Idk. Also with enhanced interrogation we could likely squeeze some information out of him. Maybe that's what happens to Assad.


Edited by Manoka, 22 November 2016 - 05:51 PM.


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#9 the rebel

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Posted 22 November 2016 - 06:17 PM

Not to mention the massive base they are building there.

Also: Hi! We miss your face!


Indeed I sense they will get their very own area of land in Syria at the end of this... Like Kaliningrad.

Also hi *waves*

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#10 the rebel

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Posted 22 November 2016 - 06:38 PM

Can't we just kill this guy?


Killing heads of state is like a rule of war that's followed, that's a Pandora's box no sane country would want to open.

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#11 the rebel

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Posted 22 November 2016 - 06:41 PM

Wat...?

Anyways the idea is that we'd remove all the international pressure on them if they pulled out of Ukraine in Syria.


Russia giving up Crimea (which is what would be required for Ukraine and the West) is like catching Santa delivering your presents, ain't going to happen.

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Posted 22 November 2016 - 07:30 PM

Can't we just kill this guy?


Killing heads of state is like a rule of war that's followed, that's a Pandora's box no sane country would want to open.

 

Well, why not? Cut the head off the snake and all that. I mean, it's a dangerous world. Convoys get hit with cruise missiles all the time. Who can say when the Grim Reaper is due?

And I'm not asking facetiously, despite my tone. These are the kinds of questions President Trump might ask of his advisers. What would they tell him?



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#13 He who posts

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Posted 23 November 2016 - 12:59 AM

 

Can't we just kill this guy?


Killing heads of state is like a rule of war that's followed, that's a Pandora's box no sane country would want to open.

 

Well, why not? Cut the head off the snake and all that. I mean, it's a dangerous world. Convoys get hit with cruise missiles all the time. Who can say when the Grim Reaper is due?

And I'm not asking facetiously, despite my tone. These are the kinds of questions President Trump might ask of his advisers. What would they tell him?

You throw out huge profile sketches of mannerism biases behaviours connections past actions.

 

And the top one tend to be crazy and paranoid which helps.



#14 the rebel

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Posted 23 November 2016 - 03:46 AM

Well, why not? Cut the head off the snake and all that. I mean, it's a dangerous world. Convoys get hit with cruise missiles all the time. Who can say when the Grim Reaper is due?
And I'm not asking facetiously, despite my tone. These are the kinds of questions President Trump might ask of his advisers. What would they tell him?


Targeting heads of state normally has a knock on effect and off the top of my head one of the most infamous ones started a chain of events which resulted in World War One.

But for arguments sake, say a third party (US for example) to the war does a missile strike on Assad's location which kills him.

Russia outraged and highly paranoid instantly enforces a no fly zone to prevent any attempts at his successor (most likely his brother who is a lot more hard-line). You've just ended Western interference in Syria as further action brings you into direct war with Russia.

Thats one example or you could go the Putin route given that it would be then an established fact America targets heads of state they don't like... Putin would have reason to believe he could be next and anything could happen then.


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#15 Manoka

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Posted 23 November 2016 - 07:50 AM

 

Can't we just kill this guy?


Killing heads of state is like a rule of war that's followed, that's a Pandora's box no sane country would want to open.

 

Well, why not? Cut the head off the snake and all that. I mean, it's a dangerous world. Convoys get hit with cruise missiles all the time. Who can say when the Grim Reaper is due?

And I'm not asking facetiously, despite my tone. These are the kinds of questions President Trump might ask of his advisers. What would they tell him?

Trust me I'm all for assassinations, but in this case I'm not sure how much it would help. Assad run's a mafia family, and if he gets assassinated there's a good chance another person a part of that family gets put in charge, who'd be just as bad. It's an organization, so you have to tear it out by the roots, not just the head

 

After the war is done he can get a bullet in the back of the head. However were he to get assassinated, I would shed no tears. The man has had it coming for decades.



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#16 Manoka

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Posted 23 November 2016 - 08:02 AM

Wat...?

Anyways the idea is that we'd remove all the international pressure on them if they pulled out of Ukraine in Syria.


Russia giving up Crimea (which is what would be required for Ukraine and the West) is like catching Santa delivering your presents, ain't going to happen.

Well worst case scenario we'd let them keep Crimea, but hopefully they just want the ports there and we'd give them those.



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#17 the rebel

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Posted 23 November 2016 - 01:12 PM


Wat...?

Anyways the idea is that we'd remove all the international pressure on them if they pulled out of Ukraine in Syria.

Russia giving up Crimea (which is what would be required for Ukraine and the West) is like catching Santa delivering your presents, ain't going to happen.
Well worst case scenario we'd let them keep Crimea, but hopefully they just want the ports there and we'd give them those.

Personally I don't see them ever backpedaling that much, because the sanctions were due to Crimea.

Anyway now that Trump is going to be in charge I can see the hard-line stance against Russia losing traction.

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