Ukraine has nothing to gain from shooting down the jet. Russia however can use it as an excuse to claim Ukraine as a no fly zone or go in with ground frorces. However you're overthinking here. Preety sure it was a simple human error that will cost the Donetsk rebels dearly.
The Donetsk rebels posted on Twitter few days ago that they have acquired BUK missile system for their air space defense. They even posted pictures. Today the post was deleted ofcourse, but thank god for Google Cache. http://webcache.goog...248037629018112
Just before the news started to circulate that the Flight 17 had gone down, the leader of Donetsk rebels was boosting on VKontakte (russian social media network) that they had shot down a Ukrainian An-26 transportplane. He said that the location is 40 kilometers East from the city of Donetsk. Ofcourse as soon as international media started posting that Flight 17 crashed just East from Donetsk he deleted the post. Link1 Link2 Link3
Russia armed rebels against Ukraine with high tech equipment. The lads fucked up, big time. Now Ukraine has an excuse to go all out on the rebels and will probably mop up the situation swiftly with the backing of international community. To restore law and order and bring mass-murderers to justice.
Edited by Alyster, 17 July 2014 - 04:05 PM.