50 replies to this topic

[ᗅᗺᗷᗅ]

I'm tempted to keep this pinned; I have a feeling we'll be talking about this a lot in the next three years.  Heh.  I guess we'll see how it goes.

 

At any rate, it should be blindingly obvious to even the most dull-witted among us that Ted Cruz is running for president.  Despite being widely seen (rightly or wrongly) as being at least partially responsible for the recent government shutdown, and despite the GOP's national approval ratings being at an all-time low in large part due to the antics of Cruz and his Tea Party brethren in the House and Senate, Ted Cruz thinks he has a serious shot at the Republican nomination.

 

And about that, I agree with him.  Given the tattered state of affairs in the GOP right now, the Texas senator stands as good a chance as any number of more experienced players in getting the party's nod.  It's going to be a vicious fight, and there's simply no way to predict who might come out on top, at least not at this early stage.  This recent budget deal, which passed with the support of Democrats and moderate Republicans, was a slap in the face to the Tea Party faithful, who would rather see the government shutdown made permanent.  In fact they'd just as soon get rid of government altogether, which would be awesome in a lot of ways, but really, really shitty in a lot of others that I think a lot of people don't think of.  But I digress.

 

Yes, Ted Cruz could realistically become the Republican nominee for president.  But the likelihood of his actually getting elected is slim and none.  Barring a complete catastrophe, any Democrat would handily beat him.  It would be a 1964-like landslide all over again.

 

BUT...

 

But...

 

Ted Cruz is not stupid.  He can do math.  He knows he would not win in a presidential contest, at least not one-on-one.  In a three-way race he'd stand a mathematically better chance.  I could easily envision Ted Cruz as a third party candidate, probably a hastily cobbled-together "Tea Party" candidate with enough statistical heft in the polls (I bet he'd garner 30% in a three-way poll) to put him within shooting distance of at least winning a plurality.

 

Don't get me wrong, I don't think that's likely.  I think more likely he'd pull down a Ross Perot-like 20%, tops.  And almost without a doubt his presence in the race as a major (i.e. double-digit) third party candidate would siphon support from the Republicans, making a Democratic victory as close to a sure thing as any statistician comes.

 

I hope everyone else finds this crap as interesting as I do. 

[Manoka]

The only problem is no-one really knows or likes Ted Cruz that much.

 

I could probably win if I ran GOP, but then again I'm pretty cool.

[PrinceVegeta]

Eh, I may be able to vote now, but I'm not.

 

Anyone they throw into office is going to suck to me. 

[ᗅᗺᗷᗅ]

I'm thinking about running.  Set up a website, do it as a write-in thing.  JOROST FOR PRESIDENT.

 

I'm Jorost and I support this message.

[GeniusInc]

I find this all interesting. The amount of political dancing going on for the 2016 is obvious to anyone looking for it and I find it anywhere from funny to sad. I vote to pin this.

[PrinceVegeta]

I'm thinking about running.  Set up a website, do it as a write-in thing.  JOROST FOR PRESIDENT.

 

I'm Jorost and I support this message.

 

If you do, I will vote for you then.

[KiWi]

I would criticize Jorost for not making the tough decisions and actually pinning/unpinning this.

But then again, a leader with the quality-shipfullness of Jorost, inspires his men to carry on his vision for him.

Ask not what Jorost can do for you, but how you can better serve Jorost.

Pinned.

[ᗅᗺᗷᗅ]

"A leader with quality-shipfullness" is my new slogan. 

[KiWi]

Anyway, lots of funny stuff. Lots of good stuff.

I don't really keep on top of this stuff, but I do care, and I do try and read up on this or that from time to time. Question though, in any hypothetical (because this is all just that);

He knows he would not win in a presidential contest, at least not one-on-one.

Do you see any way he could win?

I doubt it. Ruin it for the other (Republican), sure! In fact, if only because I love watching it (the world burn?), I want it to happen. If nothing else I'd love for the fringe to get thrown out and die, or slowly be pushed aside properly, instead of always clamoring to the Republican proper. Think Green Party.

[ᗅᗺᗷᗅ]

It's very difficult to see any scenario in which he would win.  But as the Republican nominee it certainly wouldn't be impossible.  It would take something catastrophic happening on the other side, like it came out a week before the election that the Democratic nominee committed a murder.

[KiWi]

It's very difficult to see any scenario in which he would win.  But as the Republican nominee it certainly wouldn't be impossible.  It would take something catastrophic happening on the other side, like it came out a week before the election that the Democratic nominee committed a murder.

Even then it would be quite close!

(Just wanted to make sure you weren't suggesting it would be possible with him as a third party, as your wording originally suggested )

[Manoka]

Pssft, I'll run for president.

 

Thorium + other stuff.

[ᗅᗺᗷᗅ]

Mathematically he has a better chance of obtaining a plurality in a three-way race, as theoretically he'd only need 34% (assuming the other two got 33% each).  I'm not saying that's likely, merely that there's a better chance of that happening than of him getting 51% in a two-way race.

 

It seems to me the most likely GOP candidates are...

 

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush.

 

Kansas Governor Sam Brownback.

 

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.

 

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul.

 

Texas Governor Rick Perry.

 

Florida Senator Marco Rubio.

 

Wisconsin Representative Paul Ryan.

 

There are others (there's a pretty comprehensive list here).  I tried to keep it to the serious candidates.  Note Sarah Palin's absence from my list. 

[Manoka]

Sarah Palin is a snake in the grass. Just you wait! 

 

But seriously, at least I have a campaign basis to run on.

[KiWi]

Sure he'd need less votes to receive a plurality vs. a majority, but how likely is it? Let's stick to reality here!

Also a good list. Sarah Palin is never a real contender, and I'd prefer if we could just ignore her

[ᗅᗺᗷᗅ]

Well, there are 30% of American voters who support the Tea Party, according to polls, so it's probably safe to assume that's Cruz's base.  In a three-way race that's not a bad place to start from, since in theory you could win with just over a third of the votes.  Except for a couple things:

 

1.  The United States is not a direct democracy, our presidents are chosen by the Electoral College in an archaic and ridiculous system in which the winner of a particular state, even by one vote, gets all of that state's electoral votes.  That's why George W. Bush was "elected" in 2000 despite actually receiving fewer votes.  In order for Cruz (or anyone) to win, they have to get a majority of electoral votes (270).  For that to happen Cruz would need to come out on top in enough states to obtain an electoral majority, which is so unlikely as to be all but impossible.  But still not technically impossible.

 

2.  This assumes that a three-way race would split more or less evenly, but the history of American electoral politics suggests that this will not happen.  Ross Perot was the most successful third-party candidate in modern history, and he couldn't break 20%.  Even Theodore Roosevelt, the enormously popular former president, only managed to pull 29% when he ran as a third-party candidate in 1912.  So history is not exactly with Cruz.  And he is a much more divisive candidate than Perot (or TR).

[Thrash]

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush.

Kansas Governor Sam Brownback.

 

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.

 

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul.

 

Texas Governor Rick Perry.

 

Florida Senator Marco Rubio.

 

Wisconsin Representative Paul Ryan.

 

There are others (there's a pretty comprehensive list here).  I tried to keep it to the serious candidates.  Note Sarah Palin's absence from my list. 

 

wtf this quote thing sucks

 

anyhow, Jeb Bush no

 

Brownback, dont even know who he is

 

Christie, no

 

Paul, yes

 

Rubio, fuck no

 

Ryan, fuck no

 

Palin, yes

 

and also Ted Cruz no. I'm done with him. His wife works for Goldman Sachs and he's on their health insurance policy.

[ᗅᗺᗷᗅ]

The Republicans' best chance to win is probably Christie.  The problem is he's also the one (of the three or four biggest potential candidates) with the hardest time winning the nomination.  The GOP nomination process tilts in favor of more conservative candidates, for a variety of reasons.

 

Sarah Palin does not want to be president.

[KiWi]

Agreed on the Electoral college bit, and yeah on the Christie stuff.

A lot of times in these conversations I feel like I don't have much to add. That I'm retreading old ground. Jorost covers a lot of what I know/think really.

Palin is literally awful. I think I could actually like Christie. If nothing else perhaps with '16 ruin'd for them (however it happens) he could try in '20. I don't think he'd still be so willing in '24 (after 8 years of likely Clinton, or some other Democrat). But who knows.

Speaking of Clinton, what are your thoughts on her?

[GeniusInc]

Speaking of Clinton, what are your thoughts on her?

 

A joke. She has no hope.