Today is Election Day 2015. One year from now Americans will elect the next President of the United States. One year. But don't worry, it will seem like ten.
As I am wont to do, I shall now prognosticate upon the likely events of the coming year...
Democrats
Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic nomination, as most people assume, but it will be a tougher fight than anyone expected. Bernie Sanders will start — indeed, has already started — a revolution in American politics: the acceptableness of socialism. I do not believe he will win the Democratic nomination, but he will fight hard, and go into the convention with a sizable portion of delegates, second only to the Hilldog herself. Bernie will not be president, and perhaps that's for the best — revolutionaries rarely make good heads of state. Bernie may not be king, but he will play kingmaker. He will wield enormous power over the platform and the direction of the party. Look for Hillary's VP pick to be someone from the progressive caucus, perhaps Martin O'Malley or (and here's an intriguing thought) Elizabeth Warren. And look for Hillary Clinton to adopt more and more truly left-wing positions. Indeed, she is already doing so.
Republicans
I think Jeb Bush is done. It would be a miracle if he pulled off the Republican nomination now. Hell, their party is in such disarray that serious people are calling for Mitt Romney to be called in. That's right: there's a "Draft Romney" movement. That's how bad things have gotten in the Republican party.
That said, the pendulum always swings back the other way. The GOP is down right now, but that does not mean they might not be up again in the future. If that is to happen, I think their best chance lies with Marco Rubio. He has weaknesses, many of which have not been fully vetted (not least of which his tendency to crumble under pressure — anyone remember the State of the Union rebuttal fiasco?), but at root he is a very attractive candidate, young, smart, and Latino; very much a "Republican Obama," as many in the media are already calling him.
From the point of view of someone like myself, who would prefer to see a Democrat elected (out of the two major party candidates; who I'd really prefer to see elected is a topic for another thread), Marco Rubio is the most dangerous candidate in the Republican stable. He could beat Hillary Clinton.
I don't believe any of the others could do so, and I think the Republican Establishment is beginning to see that. There is a lot of talk about urging Bush out of the race. The Trump-Carson thing is expected to fizzle out, and on that point I tend to agree with the conventional wisdom. For a while it will be the Candidate of the Month in the GOP nominating race, similar to 2012, except this time I think it's Rubio who will emerge the likely victor, possibly with Kasich as his running mate. A smart and ambitious young minority candidate with an old school, tell-it-like-it-is white guy as his grandad running mate? That should sound awfully familiar to a lot of Americans. Certainly this is the GOP's best shot at winning back the White House. Any of those other guys would be a disaster.
General Election
Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio? Already they are statistically tied in the polls, 47% to 44% (margin of error ±3.4 percentage points). It would be tough, and close. But in the end I think I'd have to give it to Rubio.
Here's hoping I'm wrong!