69 replies to this topic

[Chax]

Discuss Middle East/North Africa issues here. Anything from the Arab Spring to the invasion of Iraq to the rise of ISIS, including the Israel/Palestine issue, is fair game. I'll try to update this thread regularly with news and such. Full disclosure, I do investigative journalism with a group called Bellingcat and am enrolled in a year long, 16-credit per term course on the modern middle east, so essentially a master's program. Those of you who know me via Facebook know that I live, breathe and eat this stuff, and when I'm not actively in class or doing classwork I'm studying the area (and of course still keeping tabs on my beloved Ukraine). If you have any questions, feel free to post them and I will answer them to the best of my abilities. 

 

Current situation as of November 7th, 2015:

 

Algeria:

Algeria remains relatively stable considering their neighbors, with the ongoing war against ISIS and Al-Qaeda still raging as part of the larger insurgency in the Maghreb. Algeria remained from the Arab Spring relatively unscathed, although a series of protests against low wages, high food costs and high unemployment led to at least 8 deaths. The protests ended in January of 2012 and Algeria has been more or less stable since then. 

 

Bahrain:

The Arab Spring ignited rather violently in Bahrain, resulting in at least 93 civilian deaths. The protests and uprising began in 2011 and was violently suppressed by the government. Since then, occasional protests have cropped up, but the situation is relatively stable, albeit simmering. Bahrain is taking part in the Saudi-led coalition against the Houthi rebels in Yemen, as well as the coalition against the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS). 

 

Egypt: 

The Arab Spring struck Egypt rather hard, resulting in over 840 deaths. The protests and eventual revolution led to the overthrow of Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak and his replacement by Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. Egypt has been in a state of semi-stasis since the revolution, with dissatisfaction rising among citizens and another overthrow likely on the horizon. Egypt is currently involved in the fight against both ISIS and Al-Qaeda in the Sinai peninsula as well as Libya. Egypt is also a part of the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen.

 

Iran:

Iran remains relatively stable and, despite their status as a pariah state among the world community, they continue to develop their military and economy rather well. Popular sentiment is steadily building against the religious theocracy in charge, and it is my bet that within 10-15 years we will see a major shift in Iran. Iranian people are a lot like American people; they are very westernized, for the most part rather secular, and just want to live and be left alone. Americans are no strangers to the Iranian people, as we were allied until 1979's revolution. Iran is currently fighting an ongoing insurgency against the Kurds, as well as having troops directly on the ground interfering in the Syrian civil war. 

 

Iraq:

Following the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq in 2011, a group known as ISIS began preparing an offensive to claim vast swaths of Iraqi territory. Remnants of Saddam's army, Al-Qaeda offshoots, and common criminals trained and exchanged information while spending time in coalition prisons during the Iraq war, and when they got out, they simply waited until the right opportunity and struck. As a result, a large portion of Iraq is out of government control and thousands have been killed. In the north, the Kurdish Peshmerga has gone on the offensive against ISIS, and while the Iraqi government declines to give them independence, it doesn't look like there's a lot they can really do about it. Surprisingly, Iraq is not in the worst shape it's seen in the 21st century. 

 

Jordan:

Jordan escaped the wrath of the Arab Spring because its leader, King Abdullah, essentially did what his people asked and sacked several ministers, along with scheduling early parliamentary elections. Jordan is an extremely active participant in the war against ISIS, after a Jordanian pilot was captured and burned alive in a cage by the group. The Jordanian king personally took part in several military operations. Jordan is also involved in the war against the Houthi rebels in Yemen. 

 

Kuwait:

The Arab Spring in Kuwait ended with the dissolution of the Kuwaiti parliament and the resignation of the prime minister. Since then, Kuwait has been relatively stable, and is taking part in the Saudi-led intervention against the Houthi rebels in Yemen. 

 

Lebanon: 

Despite some early protests during the Arab Spring, Lebanon was relatively untouched by the uprisings until the civil war in Syria began to spill across the borders. Lebanese organization Hezbollah is currently engaged in ground operations in Syria, supported by Iran, and Lebanon itself is fighting elements of the al-Nusra front within their own borders. al-Nusra is another name for al-Qaeda in Syria. 

 

Yemen:

Unemployment, hunger, and low wages propelled the Arab Spring protests in Yemen, which eventually culminated in the overthrow of the Yemeni government. Currently, an insurgency and uprising against the government known as the Houthi movement is holding ground throughout Yemen despite a concerted effort by Saudi Arabia and several Gulf countries to stamp it out. To date, over 5,000 have been killed and many, many more left homeless and/or injured. There is no end in sight for this conflict, which promises to increase in severity and deadliness as the winter approaches. 

 

United Arab Emirates (UAE):

The UAE escaped the Arab Spring, but is currently engaged in several local wars. The UAE is a party to the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen and took part in actions in Libya against al-Qaeda and ISIS. The UAE is also a party in the larger regional war against ISIS. 

 

Libya: 

When the Arab Spring came to Libya, then-dictator Muammar Gadaffi responded harshly and quickly with military forces. In the face of a certain massacre, NATO countries led an intervention against Gadaffi, grounding his air force and destroying key military infrastructure. As a result, Gadaffi's government fell. Gadaffi himself was captured hiding inside a conduit pipe under a highway by rebels and beaten, tortured, and sodomized before he was finally killed. Since then, two civil wars have sparked up, most recently in 2012, which is currently ongoing. Negotiations have been taking place between the warring factions as ISIS continues to gain ground, and the international community is putting much pressure on said factions to end the fighting and get their country under control before it goes the way of Syria. 

 

Morocco:

Morocco saw turmoil during the Arab Spring, which resulted in at least 6 deaths and several-hundred injuries. In the end, the protests were successful, seeing the drafting of a new constitution among other things. Morocco continues to be an important ally in the fight against ISIS, contributing combat troops and supplies to the international coalition. 

 

Oman:

The Arab Spring was successful in Oman, with the Sultan dismissing over 1/3 of the government at the request of the citizenry. Fewer than 10 people were killed, which is again rather successful for the Arab Spring.

 

Palestine: 

Recently the UN has voted to approve the raising of the Palestinian flag at their headquarters in NYC. Furthermore, several countries have moved toward recognition of Palestine and international pressure in Israel to implement a two-state solution (Or adhere to UN Resolution 242) is immense. Currently the situation in Palestine is extremely tense, with several deaths at the hands of Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) in the past several weeks. It is likely we will see a full-blown war between Palestine and Israel in the near future. 

 

Israel:

Israel occupies a unique position in the middle east, being one of the military powerhouses but politically unable or unwilling to act. Tensions with Palestine remain extremely high and, as mentioned above, will likely result in a war in the near future. Israel has recently been striking at military targets in Syria, and has had several brief skirmishes with Syrian troops in recent history. 

 

Qatar: 

Qatar remains relatively stable and emerged from the Arab Spring more or less unscathed. Qatar is currently a member of the international coalition against ISIS and is a party to the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen. 

 

Saudi Arabia:

Saudi Arabia, or KSA, is still in the process of making changes, albeit incredibly slowly, after the Arab Spring. Fewer than ten were killed in the protests in the KSA, and while some government shifts and changes have occurred, it remains simply a matter of time before the powderkeg that is Saudi Arabia goes up. It likely won't be anytime in the near future, but their political model is unsustainable (from their religious doctrine to their support of terrorist organizations worldwide). Saudi Arabia is currently leading an intervention against the Houthi rebels in Yemen and has deployed over 100,000 soldiers, resulting in many KSA military losses. 

 

Turkey:

Turkey, the only MENA country in NATO, is currently engaged in a quasi-proxy war with the United States with regards to the Kurdish independence movement. The US supports the YPG (Syrian Kurds) and the Peshmerga in Iraq, but recognizes the Turkish Kurds (the PKK) as a terrorist organization. Essentially, the YPG/Pesh fall under the same general umbrella as the PKK, and as such the US is indirectly funding and supplying an enemy of a NATO ally. Recent elections in Turkey solidified support behind president Erdogan, who has increased support for the war against the Kurds. This has resulted in the tearing-up of a PKK-Turkish peace treaty and the resumption of suicide attacks and other terrorist activity throughout Turkey. Turkey is a part of the international coalition against ISIS. 

 

Tunisia:

 

Tunisia was one of the first countries effected by the Arab Spring and is one of the success stories, despite several hundred deaths resulting from the movement. The protests ended with the resignation of the prime minister as well as several other government changes. 

 

Syria:

Droughts and economic misfortune led to great social discontent in Syria in 2011. When several young boys were kidnapped by police and tortured to death for protesting the government, citizens took to the streets. These protests were met with extremely heavy-handed tactics on the part of the government, and the ensuing conflict spiraled into a civil war. In the vacuum left by government forces, ISIS has claimed large swaths of Syria. The Syrian Kurds, the YPG/YPJ, have risen up and cleared ISIS from much of their land, and it's unlikely that it will ever be Syrian territory again. Syria will likely be partitioned into at least two states after this civil war ends. Over 340,000 people have been killed in the fighting thus far, making it the deadliest conflict in the world at the moment. There is no end in sight, and the conflict has recently come to include Russia and Iran in addition to a US-led coalition. 

 

Flag of Kurdistan

 

Flag of the Kurdish PKK in Turkey

 

Flag of the Arab League

 

Flag of the Yemeni Southern Movement

 

Flag of the Syrian YPG

 

Flag of the Free Syrian Army

 

Arab Spring in Libya

 

Libyan town during the civil war

 

Guitar Hero: Libya

 

More Libyan protests

 

Homemade Rocket Launcher, Libya

 

Rebel T-54/55, Libya

 

Chart of Kurdish rebel groups

 

Tahrir Square, Egypt

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M0ELAa02TUY

Drone footage of Damascus, Syria

 

Resources:

http://www.Bellingcat.com

isis.liveuamap.com

syria.liveuamap.com

FSA Youtube Page: https://www.youtube....5ukChlWekVWsljQ

 

 

 

 

 

 

[the rebel]

That was an informative segment on each country.

What are your thoughts on the recent of many events in Egypt particularly the one involving the downed civil airliner?

Most of the evidence is pointing to an onboard bomb and the intelligence highly suspects that it was the case too, adding to the fact that pre-event airport security was reported as rubbish by travelers who had been interviewed.

Given that Egypt relies on its tourist industry, its going to take a massive hit. I personally reckon that the military is going to go to town on the area where the terrorist are operating from.

[Chax]

That was an informative segment on each country.

What are your thoughts on the recent of many events in Egypt particularly the one involving the downed civil airliner?

Most of the evidence is pointing to an onboard bomb and the intelligence highly suspects that it was the case too, adding to the fact that pre-event airport security was reported as rubbish by travelers who had been interviewed.

Given that Egypt relies on its tourist industry, its going to take a massive hit. I personally reckon that the military is going to go to town on the area where the terrorist are operating from.

 

Egypt's tourist industry never really recovered after the revolution in 2011, and was even more severely damaged by the bombing a few weeks ago of several Mexican tourists. This may well be the kiss of death. Russia, US and British authorities have confirmed it was a bomb at this time, and the most recent evidence is an explosion sound during the last second of CVR data, so as you said, probably a bomb. 

 

I think Egypt isn't done changing yet, and I think it's gonna get worse before it gets any better. We won't see Syria 2.0 (insh'allah) but something tells me they aren't finished yet. 

 

In terms of Russia, I don't really know how Vladdy is gonna respond to this. More Russian ground troops would be disastrous for a number of reasons, and I fear that provoking ISIS too much will result in a retaliatory attack via Chechnya. We'll see, though. For now, the fate of the Syrian people weighs really heavily on me for reasons I can't entirely describe and I'm honestly really down about life lately because of it, but that's just what happens. 

[Allant]

What is going on with Turkey? Last time I had heard anything everybody hated Erodogan, he was rocking a Palpatine style power grab, turning the country away from secular tradition and sorta lost an election. Now this last week I read he won a new election by a wide margin and is back to trying to give himself a lot of new powers. 

[Manoka]

In Syria, hundreds of thousands have died, Russia, ISIS, the U.S., most of the western world is involved, yet few people can act truly without the fear of retaliation from the others, so not much is being done. Syria should be a cut and dry situation, outst the evil people, provide Arthurian aid. But it's not, since Russia has decided to support Assad, give him missiles, give him various resources, even partake in some of the attacks themselves. 

 

Now it's a political battleground as much as a legitimate one, while the innocent people are just caught in the chaos. It's to me, what makes it so sad, that combined with the death toll.

[Chax]

What is going on with Turkey? Last time I had heard anything everybody hated Erodogan, he was rocking a Palpatine style power grab, turning the country away from secular tradition and sorta lost an election. Now this last week I read he won a new election by a wide margin and is back to trying to give himself a lot of new powers. 

 

Basically Erdogan saw that he was losing power and started using fear tactics and intimidation across Turkey, primarily in the rural areas. Contrary to what we all thought, it worked perfectly and he secured a landslide victory. 

 

In Syria, hundreds of thousands have died, Russia, ISIS, the U.S., most of the western world is involved, yet few people can act truly without the fear of retaliation from the others, so not much is being done. Syria should be a cut and dry situation, outst the evil people, provide Arthurian aid. But it's not, since Russia has decided to support Assad, give him missiles, give him various resources, even partake in some of the attacks themselves. 

 

Now it's a political battleground as much as a legitimate one, while the innocent people are just caught in the chaos. It's to me, what makes it so sad, that combined with the death toll.

 

Basically this. Also, as of today we can more or less confirm Russian troops on the ground:

 

http://www.aljazeera...8135416902.html

[King Biscuit]

I read that Turkey was so concerned about the sovereignty of it's airspace, they requested f15c's.

We provided said planes.

 

You know just as well as I do that it's not because Erdogan fears the Syrian AF.

He's worried bout the Ruskies.

[Chax]

I read that Turkey was so concerned about the sovereignty of it's airspace, they requested f15c's.

We provided said planes.

 

You know just as well as I do that it's not because Erdogan fears the Syrian AF.

He's worried bout the Ruskies.

 

To be fair, Russia has been violating their airspace lately. It sorta makes sense and probably would have happened if Russia weren't involved in Syria. 

 

Speaking of Russia, the Russian investigators of that airliner bombing have requested and are receiving FBI support, so...that might mean things are maybe going to get better? I mean it's something? Hopefully? 

[Allant]

Will a two state solution to the Israel/Palestine thing 1) Even work? 2) Will it ever happen?

Edited by Allant, 08 November 2015 - 01:57 PM.

[ᗅᗺᗷᗅ]

Putin has gotten himself into quite a pickle. He tried to shift attention away from Ukraine by fighting "terrorists" in Syria, and shit has gotten real. The Kremlin really doesn't want ISIS to be responsible for that jetliner's downing. At the moment they are trying to float the idea that it was MI6 and/or the CIA. But I don't think that's going to fly. The facts are going to be too obvious. So what does Putin do? Put large scale Russian ground forces into the Middle East? That ought to go over big.

 

This is how world wars start.

[Chax]

Will a two state solution to the Israel/Palestine thing 1) Even work? 2) Will it ever happen?

 

Maybe, and probably not. At least not as long as Netanyahu is in power. Israel/Palestine is one of those world topics I don't know a whole lot about, mainly because it's so overwhelming to even try to wade into. Syria is equally overwhelming but I had the distinct advantage of watching this one from the beginning, something I cannot claim for I/P. 

 

Putin has gotten himself into quite a pickle. He tried to shift attention away from Ukraine by fighting "terrorists" in Syria, and shit has gotten real. The Kremlin really doesn't want ISIS to be responsible for that jetliner's downing. At the moment they are trying to float the idea that it was MI6 and/or the CIA. But I don't think that's going to fly. The facts are going to be too obvious. So what does Putin do? Put large scale Russian ground forces into the Middle East? That ought to go over big.

 

This is how world wars start.

 

A lot of people don't understand that the involvement in Syria is largely for domestic consumption, and I'm really glad that wasn't lost on you. We've already gotten confirmation from one of our geolocation partners that Russian troops are on the ground in Syria in a strictly support role (Artillery support, security for the airport/artillery, etc) but this might push things further. While I'm not a fan of Russia's actions in Ukraine, I think it's foolish to spurn them in Syria and as much as Assad is a shithead, simply calling for his capitulation isn't constructive. The US needs to support a plan that removes Assad but allows him to remain in power for a certain amount of transition time. This is the deal endorsed by Russia and Syria that the US has refused to consider. We need to swallow our pride and work with the fucking Russians against ISIS. We created the problem, and now it's time that we admit we fucked up and do what we can to clean it up. 

 

I don't believe for a moment that Russia is actually fighting ISIS to fight ISIS, killing them is simply a positive side-effect. However, if they want to bluff that they're in Syria to fight ISIS, let's call that bluff and request they work with us. 

[Manoka]

Really and truly, terrorists groups flocked to Iraq when Iraq started his campaign against the Kurdish population. The Peshmerga and the like are mostly good, but the activity attracted a lot of paramilitary organizations to the region, some of which were Al-Qaeda. 

 

But what really allowed ISIS to gain the power it has is the conflict in Syria. They went in to Syria and were able to recruit followers since they could find willing volunteers to fight Assad. It's why Al-Nusra has so many members. Their successes mean they can get people to latch on to their group, and eventually their ideology. So, Saddam's and Assad's genocide are more or less what attracted these groups to the region. 

 

 

Still, ISIS is small potatoes compared to assad. He's killed at least 100,000 people, even used nerve gas. Same is true with Saddam, a relatively striking parallel. He's probably responsible for the deaths of hundreds of thousands and the creation of millions of refugees. 

 

You compare that to a few thousand people and, ISIS is really kind of a small issue in comparison. Ousting Assad is more important. If you're just worried about "stability", Assad has killed hundreds of thousands, used WMD's, and attracted god knows how many paramilitary regions, in fact even full fledged countries such as Russia to the region to bomb people, which is probably far worse for Syria in the long run than whatever ISIS can muster. 

[ᗅᗺᗷᗅ]

That is very similar to what I have been thinking, which is that if Putin is going to stir up this beehive, some of his guys are going to get stung. And before you know it Russia could find itself drawn into a situation it never wanted. When you play at being a great power you get a great power's problems.

 

And then there's Chechnya.

 

Yeah, this has the potential for being a real shitshow for Putin back home. His attempt at looking like a hero could be the thing that leads to his undoing.

[Chax]

Really and truly, terrorists groups flocked to Iraq when Iraq started his campaign against the Kurdish population. The Peshmerga and the like are mostly good, but the activity attracted a lot of paramilitary organizations to the region, some of which were Al-Qaeda. 

 

But what really allowed ISIS to gain the power it has is the conflict in Syria. They went in to Syria and were able to recruit followers since they could find willing volunteers to fight Assad. It's why Al-Nusra has so many members. Their successes mean they can get people to latch on to their group, and eventually their ideology. So, Saddam's and Assad's genocide are more or less what attracted these groups to the region. 

 

 

Still, ISIS is small potatoes compared to assad. He's killed at least 100,000 people, even used nerve gas. Same is true with Saddam, a relatively striking parallel. He's probably responsible for the deaths of hundreds of thousands and the creation of millions of refugees. 

 

You compare that to a few thousand people and, ISIS is really kind of a small issue in comparison. Ousting Assad is more important. If you're just worried about "stability", Assad has killed hundreds of thousands, used WMD's, and attracted god knows how many paramilitary regions, in fact even full fledged countries such as Russia to the region to bomb people, which is probably far worse for Syria in the long run than whatever ISIS can muster. 

 

ISIS was largely cultivated in American coalition prisons in Iraq, but you're right that the power vacuum in Syria (and Iraq, the ISF were fucking useless) is what allowed them to gain as much ground as they did. Assad needs to go, make no mistake I agree with you completely. I'm just realistic enough to know that with Russian and Iranian backing, he's probably not going anywhere, so it's time to bite the bullet and do what we can. 

 

That is very similar to what I have been thinking, which is that if Putin is going to stir up this beehive, some of his guys are going to get stung. And before you know it Russia could find itself drawn into a situation it never wanted. When you play at being a great power you get a great power's problems.

 

And then there's Chechnya.

 

Yeah, this has the potential for being a real shitshow for Putin back home. His attempt at looking like a hero could be the thing that leads to his undoing.

 

Yeah, this excursion will have long-lasting effects for Russia that we can only begin to think about now. There will be retribution in Chechnya, mark my words. 

[the rebel]

Yeah, this excursion will have long-lasting effects for Russia that we can only begin to think about now. There will be retribution in Chechnya, mark my words.

I'm sure Russia wouldn't have to officially get involved, the Chechen's who fought in Ukraine are biting at Putin's heels to fight ISIS in Syria and made very bold claims:

http://www.theguardi...gions-president

[Chax]

Yeah, this excursion will have long-lasting effects for Russia that we can only begin to think about now. There will be retribution in Chechnya, mark my words.

I'm sure Russia wouldn't have to officially get involved, the Chechen's who fought in Ukraine are biting at Putin's heels to fight ISIS in Syria and made very bold claims:

http://www.theguardi...gions-president

 

Yup, the Kadyrovtsy (staunch supporters of Chechen president Ramzan Kadyrov) are basically Putin's hit squad. Of course no soldiers will be sent to Syria, only vacationing troops right? :v

[Manoka]

 

Yeah, this excursion will have long-lasting effects for Russia that we can only begin to think about now. There will be retribution in Chechnya, mark my words.

I'm sure Russia wouldn't have to officially get involved, the Chechen's who fought in Ukraine are biting at Putin's heels to fight ISIS in Syria and made very bold claims:

http://www.theguardi...gions-president

 

Yup, the Kadyrovtsy (staunch supporters of Chechen president Ramzan Kadyrov) are basically Putin's hit squad. Of course no soldiers will be sent to Syria, only vacationing troops right? :v

Naturally, they're just observing rebels bomb the fuck out of Ukrainians and Syrians with Russian planes. 

 

Makes sense. 

[Manoka]

On that topic though, Russia really was bolstered by policies at home. If you look at the banning of the gays, making himself serve indefinitely, expanding the powers to preserve anything "traditional" (who's tradition, right? That pretty much opens up the doors to do anything you want), and pretty much the fact he's given himself a 90% "approval rating" or higher, that's what caused him to get bold overseas, the power at home. The problem is he overestimated the power of Russia internationally. Russia is relatively weak in that department, nowhere near where they were during the USSR. If they had been doing this back in the 80's or 90's, they might actually have some clout, but today Russia is barely out of economic hardtimes and Putin just put them back there. Their international standing had been shaky at best, and now it's crumbling.

 

I think this whole thing was an overestimation on his own part, and a few others.

[Chax]

On that topic though, Russia really was bolstered by policies at home. If you look at the banning of the gays, making himself serve indefinitely, expanding the powers to preserve anything "traditional" (who's tradition, right? That pretty much opens up the doors to do anything you want), and pretty much the fact he's given himself a 90% "approval rating" or higher, that's what caused him to get bold overseas, the power at home. The problem is he overestimated the power of Russia internationally. Russia is relatively weak in that department, nowhere near where they were during the USSR. If they had been doing this back in the 80's or 90's, they might actually have some clout, but today Russia is barely out of economic hardtimes and Putin just put them back there. Their international standing had been shaky at best, and now it's crumbling.

 

I think this whole thing was an overestimation on his own part, and a few others.

 

I agree. As we discussed in PM, Russia is essentially what happens when the Mafia takes over a country. Lavrov (Russian foreign minister) may be a genius but I think they've overplayed their hand. 

[the rebel]

On that topic though, Russia really was bolstered by policies at home. If you look at the banning of the gays, making himself serve indefinitely, expanding the powers to preserve anything "traditional" (who's tradition, right? That pretty much opens up the doors to do anything you want), and pretty much the fact he's given himself a 90% "approval rating" or higher, that's what caused him to get bold overseas, the power at home. The problem is he overestimated the power of Russia internationally. Russia is relatively weak in that department, nowhere near where they were during the USSR. If they had been doing this back in the 80's or 90's, they might actually have some clout, but today Russia is barely out of economic hardtimes and Putin just put them back there. Their international standing had been shaky at best, and now it's crumbling.

I think this whole thing was an overestimation on his own part, and a few others.

Take it with a pinch of salt like you always do.

http://foreignpolicy...against-russia/

http://www.politico....ssia-213316?o=1