I'm very interested in Trump's signing of the Republican pledge not to run as an independent. It's not legally binding, of course, but it would still look bad to break it. You wouldn't think an aspiring third-party candidate would want to start off with a negative like that. But who knows? Maybe Trump could find a way to weasel out of it and place the blame on someone else. Or maybe he seriously thinks he is going to get the Republican nomination. It is very difficult to tell how much is real and how much is theater with Trump.
What is undeniable is that he is popular, especially with a certain nativist base. It is simply impossible to deny that he has a realistic shot at the GOP nomination, at least on paper, at this stage. But we must remember that it is still very, very early. At this point in the 2004 cycle (i.e. Fall 2003) Howard Dean was the hot property. It's still the silly season. I continue to believe that Jeb Bush (yawn) will be the eventual Republican nominee. But, like Hillary Clinton on the other side, he is no longer "inevitable."
I am not 100% sure what Donald Trump is up to. Does he really believe all the things he says, or is he playing a character? Does he really think he can be president, or is this whole thing a self-promoting ego trip? Is there a plan to bow out while still saving face?
Talk about blurring the line between entertainment and politics.
