I have refrained from making many political posts on these forums lately, aside from responses to existing threads. Partly that's because I have lost interest in politics, stuck as we are now between election cycles (my interest waxes and wanes with elections), and partly it's because I don't think anyone here is really as into it as I am. Heh. But we've had some big doings lately. Historical doings.
The government shutdown is over after 16 days. 87 Republicans joined with House Democrats to pass the Senate's stopgap bill to raise the debt ceiling and reopen the government, putting the whole thing off until next year, when we get to do it all over again.
87 Republicans. This is the majority party we're talking about here. There are 242 Republicans in the House, yet Speaker of the House John Boehner (aka Bronze Johnny, aka The Crying Game) could only corral a third of them. He has lost control of his own party.
In a recent Pew poll, 51% of Republicans said they believe the Tea Party movement to be a separate from the GOP. In that same Pew poll, 49% of Americans had an unfavorable opinion of the Tea Party; among 18-29 year olds their favorability is a mere 25%. So the Republican party has hitched its wagon to a faction that cannot win swing voters or young voters; hardly a recipe for electoral success. In fact the GOP majority in the House has more to do with gerrymandered districts drawn by Republicans after the 2010 census. They have virtually no chance of losing, which is why so many of them feel safe to take extreme positions. Their jobs are not in danger.
So there are 30 or so Tea Party members of the House, whose seats are more or less safe. That's fine for them, but their extreme and very vocal positions tar the Republican party as a whole, drive away centrists, and damage their prospects to win a national election. They "fought the good fight," they said, over the recent government shutdown. Fought the good fight? Yeah, they should be really proud of themselves for keeping day closed and making people work without pay. And why? Because they don't like Obamacare. They cannot get over the fact that the law was passed, the Supreme Court upheld it, and the president was re-elected by a comfortable margin. They are, in short, insane. One moderate GOP senator recently identified himself as being from the "sane caucus" of the Republican party.
I think we are looking at a split in the Republican party. 2016 will be telling. The fight for the Republican nomination will be nasty. It is becoming easier and easier to see a realistic scenario in which we have a Democrat, a Republican, and a Tea Party candidate. Sam Brownback? Sarah Palin? Ooh, it's going to be fun! *rubs hands together in glee*
30% of the public have a favorable view of the Tea Party. That's a significant minority, but it's still a minority. In 1992 Ross Perot got almost 20% (18.9%, to be exact) of the popular vote, which some analysts say swung the election to Clinton (other models have shown otherwise). Whether it did or did not give the Oval Office to Big Bill, the fact remains that it is the best showing for any third party candidate in a presidential election in a very long time. If the Tea Party ran a candidate of their own it is not inconceivable that they could garner 20-25% of the popular vote. The problem is that most of those votes will come from the Republicans' column, essentially handing the election to whichever Democrat gets the nomination. Coughcoughhillaryclintoncoughcough. Whether that's a good thing or a bad thing remains to be seen.
A lot of people, me included, have longed for a third party. I think we're going to get our wish.