It is now less than ten hours until the first votes will be cast in the New Hampshire primary. Here's where things stand, poll-wise:
Democrats
Sanders 54%
Clinton 40%
Republicans
Trump 31%
Rubio 15%
Cruz 13%
Kasich 11%
Bush 10%
These numbers are based on the most recent CNN poll of polls. Unfortunately they do not reflect the impact of Saturday night's Republican debate, and specifically Rubio's apparent self-destruction. Since most polls (and all good polls) are conducted over several days, we will not see a poll conducted entirely after the debate before the voting starts. There might be some numbers late tonight and early tomorrow that could shed some light, and the campaigns themselves have post-debate polling, but we the people won't know what's actually happening until it happens. And that makes it kind of exciting.
Here are my predictions:
- Sanders is going to beat Clinton. I don't think anyone will be too surprised to see me say that. The question will be the margin. The aggregate poll numbers above do not necessarily convey the seriousness of Hillary Clinton's situation. In some recent individual polls, Clinton has been as much as 30 points behind. There is no chance of her winning in the Granite State; the best that she can hope for is to narrow the margin and try to claim a moral victory. If she can close the gap to single digits, i.e. 9 points or less, she would have a good case for being the second Clinton Comeback Kid. The aggregate numbers, which only have her 16 points down, suggest that this might be possible. But my instinct is to say that it's not going to happen. Bernie sanders' supporters are fired up; they're going to come out in droves. Hillary's supporters are older, and turnout might be suppressed by the weather (we are currently being blizzarded on here in the Northeast; I'm on my second snow day in a row — yay four-day weekends!). I think Bernie is going to trounce her by 20 points or so.
- Trump is going to win, but he is going to underperform his poll numbers. Partly this will be because of the weather (his supporters tend to be older, like Clinton's), and partly it will be for the same reason he underperformed his Iowa polls: voters lost their nerve at the last minute. If electability means something to you, Donald Trump is probably not your candidate. And New Hampshire voters are nothing if not pragmatic. I predict that Trump's margin is going to be smaller than anticipated, around 25%. The runner-up will not be far behind him, probably within 5 points. As to who that runner-up will be...
- I think Kasich or Bush are going to finish 2nd in New Hampshire. My rationale: Rubio looked set to become the mainstream candidate and consolidate the moderate and "electability" vote. But his terrible, horrible, no good, very bad debate performance probably scuttled that. His support was only just beginning to take form, and it was never deep. A lot of his potential voters will be spooked. I don't think Chris Christie will be the beneficiary of this, however, despite his being the instrument of Rubio's destruction. He is too bombastic, too crass, too Trump-like. New Hampshire voters like a more genteel candidate. Kasich and Bush have also worked the state HARD, and Bush, at least, is reputed to have a stellar on-the-ground operation to get out his vote.
I think Kasich and Bush are going to pick up Rubio's refugees, Trump supporters who suddenly get cold feet, and last-minute voters (who historically tend to go for moderates). The only question is which one? I'm tempted to say Kasich, because he has really put in the time and the legwork, and the people of New Hampshire seem to like him. But I think it's going to be Bush. He had a couple of strong moments in the last debate, specifically the exchange with Trump over eminent domain. His name and family are well known here. And his organization is top notch. I think he's going to turn out the people he needs to turn out, and surprise the political watchers. - Whoever doesn't come in second will still have a pretty good night at third. If this is Bush, look for it to be a Vitamin B shot to his campaign. It will ease the minds of worried donors, for sure, and give him some momentum going into South Carolina. If it's Kasich it will do some of the same things, but to a lesser degree. Frankly, even if Kasich comes in second I don't think his campaign has the legs to take advantage of it. He just doesn't have the money, and even a second place finish in New Hampshire would probably not give him enough of a boost to go all the way.
- The losers are going to be Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. Cruz could still place or finish a strong fourth. Evangelical voters are a much smaller proportion of the electorate in New Hampshire, but they do exist and they are highly motivated. Bad weather will not impede them. Cruz's numbers had been flat or declining in NH prior to Saturday night's debate, when he was hammered over his campaign's dirty tactics in Iowa. If he places third he will have some justification, at least in his own mind, to go on. I haven't seen recent numbers from South Carolina, but presumably it is friendly territory for a guy like Cruz. My instinct, though, is that he will sink to fourth. Rubio might still have enough residual support and organization to hang on to third, but it's really hard to say. Saturday night was pretty disastrous. I suspect that it amounts to the death knell of his campaign, if not his political career (he is not running for reelection to the Senate). I bet he falls out of the top tier altogether and ends up as fifth, behind Cruz
Jorost's final predictions for the New Hampshire GOP primary:
25% Trump
20% Bush
18% Kasich
13% Cruz
10% Rubio
8% Christie
4% Carson
1% Fiorina