I've been binge watching the latest season of House of Cards, which has proven to be remarkably prescient about the tumultuous nature of the 2016 race, if not the actual details. It has gotten me thinking of some House of Cards-like scenarios based on current events.
Sanders/Clinton
Bernie Sanders' upset win last week in Michigan has set the political world on its head. It has been rightly described as one of the greatest political upsets in history. If the Bernie Sanders phenomenon has a second act, Hillary Clinton's inevitability evaporates (again). Let's say Bernie comes on with a vengeance over the next round of primaries, and they fight it out all the way to the convention. In the end, Bernie comes away with more won delegates, i.e. those awarded based on the results of primaries and caucuses. Hillary Clinton still has the nomination "locked up" because of her superdelegate pledges, but those pledges aren't worth the paper they're not written on. If Bernie had more won delegates, it would be difficult for the superdelegates to give the nomination to Clinton. It's a dilemma.
Solution: Hillary Clinton runs as Bernie Sanders' running mate, but with a special caveat. Bernie will ask Hillary to give him two years to get the money out of politics and reign in the big banks. During this time she will serve as a kind of "co-president," particularly taking the lead on matters of foreign policy. After two years, in exchange for her support, he will resign citing health reasons, making her president. If they time it correctly, just a shade over two years into the term, Hillary could be president for nearly ten years.
Romney Ascendant
In this scenario, Marco Rubio wins Florida, John Kasich wins Ohio, and the whole GOP shitshow rolls on, all the way to the convention, without a nominee. Trump has the most delegates, around 40-45% (about 1000), followed by Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich is descending order of importance. The Republican "establishment" (most of whom would be superdelegates on the Democratic side), determined to deny the nomination to Trump, cobbles together a deal in which Mitt Romney becomes the nominee, Marco Rubio his running mate, with promises to Cruz and Kasich to be Attorney General and Secretary of the Treasury, respectively.
Enraged, Trump launches an independent campaign, eschewing messy state ballot laws by conducting an unprecedented write-in campaign. A whole bunch of his angry supporters (aka the Republican base) rightly call bullshit on the Republican power brokers' machinations. Trump makes it his personal mission to destroy Mitt Romney and the Republicans.
And he tries. He comes at them hard. But Mitt Romney is not as dumb as he seems. He plays it straight, keeping it dignified and presidential. He stays above the fray, managing to look strong and confident while Trump rants and raves and Hillary tries to defend herself. In the end, a sizable portion of Democrats, fed up with the Clintons and dead-set against Trump, defect to the "moderate" Romney. Standing between a raving madman and a shrill shill, Romney looks good by being boring. Talk about playing to his strengths.
The election, as expected, is a mess, and ends up being thrown to the House, where the Republicans, still in control, give the presidency to Romney. But there is a wrinkle: The Senate chooses the vice president, but the post-election Senate goes back to Democratic hands after the Supreme Court refusal-to-consider-nomination fiasco. So Mitt's VP is Julian Castro, Hillary's running mate.
If either of these scenarios seem far-fetched, I urge you to watch House of Cards. 