I used to think I knew something about American politics. But if there's one thing 2016 has shown, it's that all my education, knowledge, training, and experience amount to a big, steaming pile of excrement this time.
First, there's Donald Trump. I couldn't have been more wrong about Trump. On these very forums (and in many other places) I poo-pooed his candidacy, scoffed, and made light of his chances. I thought he'd be out by Thanksgiving, certainly by Christmas. In my wildest dreams I never imagined he would make it so far, much less be the odds-on favorite for the Republican nomination. Don't get me wrong — I'm thoroughly enjoying watching him singlehandedly destroy the Republican party. But I never saw it coming.
But I consoled myself with the fact that these were Republicans, conservatives, and therefore not my people. The Democrats were a group I understood much better. And there, at least, my prognostications were more on the money. I called Bernie Sanders' early successes, as well as Hillary Clinton's pulling ahead and eventually clinching the nomination. Until Tuesday night, when Michigan delivered a huge (YUGE!) upset to the Lady Clinton by giving Bernie the win.
And now? Who knows? Certainly not me! Trump seems like a lock; at this point it's hard to see how someone overtakes him to claim the nomination. What they could do, and what all the pundits are talking about, is drive the process all the way to the convention by denying Trump the 1,237 delegates needed to lock up the nomination. Then they could nominate Mitt Romney or Paul Ryan or whatever other loser gets the gold watch this year. Because if that happens Trump will almost certainly run as an independent, and almost certainly make it his mission to humiliate the eventual GOP nominee.
As for the Democrats... Again, who knows? On its face it still looks like the advantage is with Clinton. She has won 742 delegates to Bernie's 542, and she is way ahead in the superdelegate race (461 to 25). But here's the thing: Those superdelegate pledges are soft. They don't actually vote until June, when the elected delegates have all been won. If Bernie starts to rack up more wins, and more won delegates, then more superdelegates will move to his column. There are still 2,761 delegates left to win (not counting superdelegates). Bernie would need to get 67% of them to win the nomination (or 62% counting the remaining superdelegates), a daunting task, to be sure. But if he starts to win and gets on a roll some of Hillary's superdelegates might defect. Under normal circumstances I would say that such a path was virtually impossible, but this year? I wouldn't make any bets.
I know nothing, and I kind of like it. It's nice to have a race in which the outcome is not already a forgone conclusion. 2008 was exciting; 2016 is even more so. Interesting times indeed.