124 replies to this topic

[ᗅᗺᗷᗅ]

I wouldn't call them volatile. In fact I think their aspirations and behaviors are entirely predictable and, from a historical perspective, a little boring. They are concerned with maintaining what they see as their territorial integrity and sphere of influence. They've always been a little paranoid about that! The past isn't forgotten; in fact it's not even past.

 

And how do we know Russia/the USSR never sent bombers during the Cold War? That's not the sort of thing the American government would be likely to admit. During the 1980s NORAD was scrambled several times for what were later termed as "false readings," etc. Maybe they weren't so false.

 

The point is that Russia is acting in precisely the way one would expect them to act given their history. George Friedman predicted these events, right down to the time frame, over a decade ago in The Next 100 Years, a book I have cited often.

[Manoka]

Lots of people have predicted this, I predicted this. The volatility is that they are so willing to attack, despite the risk to themselves, and the lack of any real gain in the region. They aren't, or shouldn't be in control of Eastern Europe anymore, these are independent countries, who did not enjoy the rule of the previous Soviet Union. If they're going to invade a country because the EU was strengthening ties with them, and pretend like they're still in control of them even though it's been decided ages ago, than it's going to cause some problems. 

 

Also, Russia has been sending Bombers to the U.S. practically daily for the past little while. If the Soviet Union ever did send a few bombers on a few rare occasions, it was obviously not a consistent and constant desire to try and provoke us. And it was never this close. 

 

 

The problem is, Russia has always been a bit crazy like this. While Vietnam and the Cuban missile crisis were done by proxies, Russia didn't hesitate to invade Afghanistan when it could, meaning while those were indirect, Russia never really saw it's expansion as a result of sneaky politics to be any different from violence. While jumping to violence seems like an extreme to many, they've been oppressing their own people for quite some time now, and wars in Chechnya have made it common for Russians to use large scale violence, even in their own territories. With that in mind, to them it's not that much of an escalation to start killing people; while most people see politics and violence as to separate things, for the Russians, it's always been one side of the same coin, which is why threats to Ukraine previously were not just hot air as many perceived them. 

 

The problem is, how much will this escalate to? Given that the U.S. isn't one to back out of a fight, and Russia has a propensity towards violence, this could escalate very quickly, and we could be on our way to a god awful war. At the very least, we are already in a cold war. And mostly due to the psychotic nature of Putin and his cronies, which is sad, to say the least. I don't want to kill a bunch of Russians, seems awful. But we may very well be on the verge of WWIII here. And I know not with what weapons it will be fought with, but I know that WWIV will be fought with sticks and stones. 

Edited by Manoka, 03 March 2015 - 09:03 PM.

[Manoka]

I think the irony of this whole thing is that Russia did this, in large part, of out fears of growing economic ties of Ukraine and the rest of the world, namely the EU. But now, seeing how Russia acts, most people are going to want to cut ties with Russia and go join some other force, chiefly, the U.S. and the EU, the two richest organizations in existence, other than Russia. China also is standing against Russia largely, so, countries like Moldova or Estonia are going to go "Nope, not relying on Russia for any economic goods, or selling them anything they think they need..." and go somewhere else. 

 

It's going to have the exact opposite effect of what they intended. When you're a bully, no-one wants to be your friend, and that's what you need to have a healthy economy. 

[Manoka]

I found something interesting that was never widely published in the media was that the independant Gallup organisation on be half of USA polled Crimeans sometime after the referendum.

Which state some interesting public opinions in that area and the eastern Ukraine.

http://www.iri.org/s...16-30, 2013.pdf

http://www.bbg.gov/w...-slide-deck.pdf

Interesting the independant polls falls in line with the supposedly fixed and the reason for lack of observers due to it being "illegitimate" referendum.

They didn't allow outside observers, whether it's accurate or not. It's not up to Russia to decide, is the point, which they didn't give another choice. 

 

As well, while I've never been a big fan of gallup, since I don't like their small sample sizes, change in leadership who deliberately said he was seeking controversial statistics, and their strangely worded questions which can be used to imply all kinds of weird things, however, according to them only a quarter wanted to actually be a part of Russia, compared to the 97% support cited by Russia. And how much of that quarter is ambivalent, or fed propaganda about how the evil the nazi fascists of Ukraine are, is a whole other question in it's entirety. 

 

http://www.ibtimes.c...st-year-1561821

Edited by Manoka, 08 March 2015 - 12:19 PM.

[the rebel]

They didn't allow outside observers, whether it's accurate or not.

No, international organisations didn't go to monitor the vote as they viewed it as illegitimate so wouldn't go. Its a subtle difference but stops disinformation told as fact.

A group of observers from 23 countries arrived of their own accord to monitor the voting.

[ᗅᗺᗷᗅ]

I'm surprised that no one has made more of the multibillion dollar bailout the Chinese gave Kiev, effectively propping up their government. That strikes me as a major development and no news outlet is talking about it.

[ᗅᗺᗷᗅ]

Putin admits that the plan to annex Crimea was ordered weeks before the referendum.

[Manoka]

They didn't allow outside observers, whether it's accurate or not.

No, international organisations didn't go to monitor the vote as they viewed it as illegitimate so wouldn't go. Its a subtle difference but stops disinformation told as fact.

A group of observers from 23 countries arrived of their own accord to monitor the voting.

They weren't allowed to take part in the key part of the voting, they could only observe from the outside and try to determine if there was any obvious corruption. The idea of a 96.77% support of the annexation by Russia is obviously ludicrous. 

 

Furthermore, "The available choices did not include keeping the status quo of Crimea and Sevastopol as they were at the time the referendum was held. The 1992 constitution accords greater powers to the Crimean parliament including full sovereign powers to establish relations with other states, therefore many commentators argued that both provided referendum choices would result in de facto separation from Ukraine." [1]

 

 

Some members were unofficially invited and then fired at and ordered to leave, so the idea that they were allowed to go there is a bit silly. 

 

http://en.wikipedia...._2014#Observers

[Chax]

Putin admits that the plan to annex Crimea was ordered weeks before the referendum.

 

Oh hey it looks like I was right. Again. I'll accept apologies from those who swore I was wrong anytime now. 

[Manoka]

Putin admits that the plan to annex Crimea was ordered weeks before the referendum.

 

Oh hey it looks like I was right. Again. I'll accept apologies from those who swore I was wrong anytime now. 

I think you're seriously overestimating my ability to admit I've been back pedaling this whole time, let alone that I'm wrong.

 

On a more serious note, I got attacked by Rebel over this D:

[Chax]

 

Putin admits that the plan to annex Crimea was ordered weeks before the referendum.

 

Oh hey it looks like I was right. Again. I'll accept apologies from those who swore I was wrong anytime now. 

I think you're seriously overestimating my ability to admit I've been back pedaling this whole time, let alone that I'm wrong.

 

On a more serious note, I got attacked by Rebel over this D:

 

I didn't think you were one of the ones arguing with me. If you were, I accept your back-pedal and appreciate your cool-headed reply in the face of my douchetacular comment. <3 

[Manoka]

 

 

Putin admits that the plan to annex Crimea was ordered weeks before the referendum.

 

Oh hey it looks like I was right. Again. I'll accept apologies from those who swore I was wrong anytime now. 

I think you're seriously overestimating my ability to admit I've been back pedaling this whole time, let alone that I'm wrong.

 

On a more serious note, I got attacked by Rebel over this D:

 

I didn't think you were one of the ones arguing with me. If you were, I accept your back-pedal and appreciate your cool-headed reply in the face of my douchetacular comment. <3 

I wasn't lol xD

 

It was more of a sarcastic reference to pretending to be the people who didn't agree with you. 

 

 

I knew it was his plan the whole time, he's practically transparent. 

 

For some reason, people have made this an Anti-america point of view, and then disagree with it on that basis alone. O.,o

[Manoka]

Man, I love russia. I was doing a lot of research about them before dis. I was coming up with roleplay characters who were all ex-Afghanistan war veterans and whatnot, since I love the U.S. military and decided to branch out. I like their crazy history, being under the control of the mongols, the prussians, the czars, the communists, this, and up until recently I liked their progress. Their people have gone through a lot, from famines, to invasions, to horrible leaders killing more than their enemies, even as far back as WWII! Did you know they lost more than 20% of their population in WWII? That entire areas were starved? On purpose?

 

It's fricking horrible. That being said, that can't excuse their actions, and it can't be allowed to make their leaders exonerated for all their actions. Countries have a right to self determination, and putin has no right to invade a territory just for strengthening ties with the EU, and refusing to be dependent on Russia. 

 

 

The thing is, it's going to suck to go to war with them, what with the threat of nukes, and the fact that most of their people are mostly innocent. It's easier to fight terrorists when they beat their waves who are practically sex slaves, blow up hospitals and schools, lay down land mines, attack civilians directly as a result of systematic violence. But when most your enemies are brainwashed, and they're mostly innocent ,sure that their enemies are nazi fascists or what have you, it's a lot harder.

 

I don't think this can be resolved without violence though, unless we give them Crimea and eastern ukraine, and even then, I doubt they're going to stop there, since it's obvious he has aspirations to take over other countries, like Georgia and the eastern european countries that used to be soviet states. Maybe putin gets assassinated or resigns, that would be fun. Maybe the Russian mob who are threatening his family step down, idk (just a nice thought). But, it doesn't seem like it's going to be this easy. 

 

 

See, though?

 

F-35's and F-22's which are stealthy could avoid S-300 missiles, and the Zumwalt destroyer would have been useful with the missile defense system. Screw the people who said these projects were a waste of money, given that Russia has been giving the S-300's to Iran, syria, and everyone else, this is the future of warfare. And yes, Che, being strike by lighting and landing itself after the fuel tank explodes does mean the aircraft can still fly. 

[the rebel]

Putin admits that the plan to annex Crimea was ordered weeks before the referendum.

Oh hey it looks like I was right. Again. I'll accept apologies from those who swore I was wrong anytime now.

Well everything was a conspiracy theory in the early days as no one really knew.

Though can you blame some of us for not believing everything said by Western sources, for instance:

US Four Star General Philip Mark Breedlove and all the bullshit propaganda and lies that have come from his mouth. This is a guy whose NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe.
http://m.spiegel.de/.../a-1022193.html

Should give it a read to find out what drugs your generals in the US have been taking as they seem to be seeing unicorns.

[Manoka]

 

Putin admits that the plan to annex Crimea was ordered weeks before the referendum.

Oh hey it looks like I was right. Again. I'll accept apologies from those who swore I was wrong anytime now.

Well everything was a conspiracy theory in the early days as no one really knew.

Though can you blame some of us for not believing everything said by Western sources, for instance:

US Four Star General Philip Mark Breedlove and all the bullshit propaganda and lies that have come from his mouth. This is a guy whose NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe.
http://m.spiegel.de/.../a-1022193.html

Should give it a read to find out what drugs your generals in the US have been taking as they seem to be seeing unicorns.

"It's 30,000, not 40,000, and the Russian forces have been there for months before the invasion into Crimea!"

 

That's not really seeing unicorns.

 

 

What germany is really saying is, stopping being so aggressive so we can reach a diplomatic solution, rather than we're inherently wrong. 

 

Germany also doesn't have spy satellites, and doesn't share much intelligence information with the U.S. and UK, the connected powers, so it makes sense they'd see less, since their intelligence agencies are really private. 

 

 

As far as it being a conspiracy goes, it seems paper thin that it ever wasn't Russians. When he's saying his soldiers are just on vacation, and guys in the newest, most expensive equipment pop up in a country, say F-22's from America, or AN-94's from Russia, reserved not only for that country alone, but the best of the best soldiers all together even in that country, it becomes kind of obvious it's their guys, even if they don't wear insignia's. Russia admitting to it is just icing on the cake, they'd have to eventually to spread the propaganda that this is a good thing they've done for Russia.

Edited by Manoka, 10 March 2015 - 07:34 AM.

[the rebel]

^^^ obviously didn't read the whole article and only tiny segments ^^^

[Manoka]

^^^ obviously didn't read the whole article and only tiny segments ^^^

I did, there's just lots of bias, obviously since that's the headline of the article. And it doesn't refute the fact that there's largely a disagreement in total numbers, not presence at all. And the approach to the situation.

 

Although the troops were there before any such invasion, Putin has already admitted to planning this many weeks, if not months in advance. So saying the build up of forces occurred a while before the invasion, even though it was said to be training exercises (which is likely was, exercises for the invasion), doesn't invalidate at all that they were and still are sending troops there. Particularly for the invasion. 

 

 

Like, you expect troop build up's there before an invasion. 

 

That's just obvi. 

Edited by Manoka, 10 March 2015 - 10:52 AM.

[Chax]

 

Putin admits that the plan to annex Crimea was ordered weeks before the referendum.

Oh hey it looks like I was right. Again. I'll accept apologies from those who swore I was wrong anytime now.

Well everything was a conspiracy theory in the early days as no one really knew.

Though can you blame some of us for not believing everything said by Western sources, for instance:

US Four Star General Philip Mark Breedlove and all the bullshit propaganda and lies that have come from his mouth. This is a guy whose NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe.
http://m.spiegel.de/.../a-1022193.html

Should give it a read to find out what drugs your generals in the US have been taking as they seem to be seeing unicorns.

 

In any other circumstances I'd be with you on this one. It's always, always important to take anything the west in general says about Russia, but in the case of Crimea on forward, it's been painfully evident where the truth lies. I think Putin expected the people to rise up in the east, and by and large they haven't. I think he's stuck in something he didn't want to be heavily involved in, and he can't back out without losing power in Russia. And I think between the rebels massing near Mariupol and the reports of NAF heavy artillery near Donetsk, along with yet ANOTHER "aid" convoy coming, things are gonna get really, really ugly really fast. 

 

Also Breedlove's a fucking tool and shouldn't be the supreme commander in europe. We don't need a fucking hot-head in that seat, ya know?

 

e: I'm giving a presentation to my class on Friday about the Ukraine war, btw. I think it'll be recorded, so if it is i'll post it here. The contents of the powerpoint have been vetted by various third parties, and my sources are all linked in the end so yeah. 

Edited by Ernesto Che Guevara, 11 March 2015 - 08:08 AM.

[the rebel]

One thing you don't ever see in western media is the numerous and regular protests in Kiev and other places regarding the current war and government on its own country.

[ᗅᗺᗷᗅ]

Western media shows stuff that sells. It's really as simple as that. Protests — especially ongoing protests — don't sell. They're boring. And if the underlying issues aren't easy to understand it's even worse. People say they want real news, but they don't. If they did the PBS NewsHour would be the most-watched news program. If you want thoughtful, detailed analysis of national and world events that is truly without spin, they're your best bet.