The United States is essentially in a no-win situation here. By all accounts, these ISIS characters are bad news. They are so extreme that even Hezbollah and Hamas consider them extreme. I listened to an interesting NPR piece about them. The short version: They came from nowhere and within two years had become one of the primary actors in the Syrian civil war, controlling more territory than anyone but Assad himself. And they are the fanatic's fanatics, practicing an especially strict form of Wahhabism, the Sunni sect that dominates Saudi Arabia. There have been atrocities, and there will be more.
And what of the Kurds? The Kurds, the only actors who, by all accounts, have behaved with integrity and professionalism in a region dominated by ethno-religious madness and petrowars. The United States has betrayed them twice now; I do not think it is in our interests to betray them again.
So what is the United States to do? We have vested economic and military interests in the region, and for a decade have expended a tremendous amount of blood and treasure "securing" Iraq and Afghanistan. Are we to let it fall to extremists who make the Taliban look like the Italian Army? Is that in our interests? On the other hand, do we really want to spill more American blood, and spend more American money (read: borrow more from the banks). Is THAT in our interests?
In my opinion, it is not in the interests of the United States, or really anybody, for ISIS to become an established power in the region. If I were president I would want a detailed tactical assessment of the situation and what it would take to rout them. I would not want to put American "boots on the ground," as they say, but air support, reconnaisance, intel, drone strikes, etc., would all be on the table. Preferably it would be coordinated with a joint force of our regional allies, Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, taking the lead on the ground. In exchange for securing their support I would officially tell Israel to CUT THE SHIT and remove their forces from the Occupied Territories. I am not prepared to fight WW3 over Israel.
I am not privy to the tactical details of the situation. Perhaps it is possible that airstrikes can wreak havoc with the Islamic State's forces. But even if that is the case, what then? The Obama administration, like it's predecessor, has no endgame here. What if airstrikes don't work? And if they do work, who takes over then? The Iraqi army that cut and run? Yeah, that ought to inspire confidence.
As president, I would also drop the United States' official position that Iraq remain a unitary state. The Kurds deserve their own nation. The Turks won't like it, but I'm sure we can do something to appease them. And, in point of fact, the Turks cannot be unaware of the closeness of the threat. They might welcome a well-armed Kurdistan as a buffer from the Islamic State.
The White House is faced with an almost impossible situation. Nobody wants to get involved militarily in the Middle East again just when we were pulling out. But it looks like exactly what many of the pundits (myself included) said would happen way back when in the heady days of the invasion of Baghdad. The Iraqi regime cannot survive without support. Which brings me to the third thing I'd do as president:
Make nice with Iran. The American-Iranian Cold War needs to end. If that means the United States formally apologizing for the overthrow of Mossadegh, so be it. I am a president willing to admit my country has made mistakes, and accept responsibility for them. I would only make this agreement if, in exchange, the Iranians agreed to issue a formal apology for the Iranian Hostage Crisis of 1980-81. I think they would agree to this. I would normalize relations with them.
Ultimately my goal would be to break Iraq into its constituent parts: 1) An independent Kurdistan in the North; 2) a nominally independent rump Iraq in the South, consisting of the Shi'ite-dominated region of the country, which would be an Iranian satellite state; 3) a jointly-occupied Sunni region in the center-West of the country, consisting of territory currently comprising the Islamic State, which would be under Arab League and/or UN administration, with occupying troops from the major Arab powers, i.e. Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. The future of this region would be negotiated. Should it become an independent state? Integrate with one or more neighbors? TBD.
But something tells me Obama won't do what I would do. He is a bit of a cunt like that.
