193 replies to this topic

[Lord Draculea]

Well, if the stated objective (of stopping any further use of chemical weapons in Syria and neutralizing the arsenal) can be reached without an actual military strike, it is of course the preferred way to go. Personally, I think it should be obvious to anyone that a dictator's promise cannot be taken seriously for a second but, for tactical reasons, Obama might accept to play this hide and seek game (of Assad against the UN), without losing face.    At least for a while...

[Haflinger]

Recent developments in this case have cheered me a bit actually.

 

http://www.huffingto..._n_3889551.html

 

Bild am Sonntag is now reporting, citing unnamed German intelligence sources, that the chemical weapons attack may have been launched by Syrian government forces against Assad's wishes. If that's what's going on, we're seeing a rogue element appearing in Syrian government forces, then that's bad news for Syrian stability but it also means that the Russian initiative to make Syria finally sign on to the Chemical Weapons Convention has a chance of success, as Assad has got to be aware that he's got potential mutineers working for him.

 

If this affair can be resolved with Syria genuinely signing on to the Convention and allowing chemical weapons inspectors into the country, I'm for that result. Even though I really don't think the Russians have the best interests of the Syrian public close to their hearts, any event that results in the destruction of sarin gas stockpiles has got to be seen as a move forward.

[ᗅᗺᗷᗅ]

Meh.  That sounds like a face-saving story for both sides.  The US threatened, Syria caved.  I think it was a bluff, but if so it worked.  Frankly I think the Obama administration scrambled to pull this one out, but it's done.  I'd be interested to know what back-door deals were made with the Russians to make this happen.

[Haflinger]

Don't care. Another country turning its back on the practice of stockpiling poison gas is GOOD NEWS.

[ᗅᗺᗷᗅ]

Well you certainly will get no argument there.  The fact that I was right is also, as always, infinitely satisfying. 

[Lord Draculea]

Well you certainly will get no argument there.  The fact that I was right is also, as always, infinitely satisfying. 

At least for the time being, yes.    However, let's not forget that the future is still full of black clouds over Syria...

[ᗅᗺᗷᗅ]

Ah, my liberal brethren.  A few days ago they were ripping Obama a new one, now they're all kissing his ass for being a geopolitical mastermind.  Like he planned this whole thing.  Lol.  He got lucky, that's all.  They wanted a way out and they found one.  The underlying problems and instability remain.  They're just hoping everything holds together long enough for it to be the next president's problem.

[ᗅᗺᗷᗅ]

Editing note:  I accidentally made a double post, and in deleting one of them I think I deleted one of Haf's too.  The Times regrets the error.

[Manoka]

If Syria caves without U.S. intervention, then it establishes the precedent that the sheer words we say, just the threat of military intervention, are enough to make empire's crumble.

 

Talk about saving face.

 

 

That's the best face of all.

[Thrash]

Editing note:  I accidentally made a double post, and in deleting one of them I think I deleted one of Haf's too.  The Times regrets the error.

 

That's okay, we all seem to fuck up Haf's posts on "accident".

[Manoka]

Everyone's like, why is a war happening? America is super powerful!

 

Usually, everyone is afraid of us, and sure they would lose in a fight, be it Russia or some small country. But now, country's like North Korea, or terrorists, are attacking us, why?

 

 

Becuase they are suicidal.

 

For all intents and purposes, they want to die, want us to have to come over and kill, as awful as it is. But for the rest of the world, a bit of reason is present, so things are mostly okay. How can they challenge American might; well, they can't, but, if we let them do whatever they want they can do A LOT of damage, so we're stopping them.

Edited by Manoka, 11 September 2013 - 10:15 PM.

[ᗅᗺᗷᗅ]

How's this for a deal?  No airstrikes, Putin gets to look like the hero, and in exchange the US gets Snowden back.

 

If I were Edward Snowden I'd be a little nervous right about now.

[Lord Draculea]

Highly unlikely. You can't equate a man over a country...

 

I'm more worried about Putin's consistent policy of reviving Russia's sick nostalgia for its lost status of a world power. That should mostly worry Europe, and particularly Eastern Europe (a country like Germany can very well deal with Russia if it has to, has also done it before, when they signed the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact and then split Poland among themselves). I'm not saying that we're even close to the situation of 1939, but Russia's insolent behavior lately should be closely watched, in my view. It is common practice nowadays for Russia to blackmail its neighbors with cutting the gas supplies and blocking their exports to its internal market, in case they're showing signs of an independent policy. Most recent example: the direct threats made to countries like Ukraine or Moldova, should they dare to sign an association treaty with the EU, instead of joining the ghostly "Eurasian Union" that Russia is (unsuccessfully) trying to set up. 

Many of Russia's behavioral patterns today (including in the Snowden and Syria cases) can be read in this key of a humiliated ex-great power complex.

[ᗅᗺᗷᗅ]

To use a George W. Bushism, I think you misunderestimate how much the US government wants to get their hands on Snowden.  Hell, they grounded a head of state's plane because they thought he might be on it.  I'm not saying they cut a deal, just that it wouldn't surprise me.