21 replies to this topic

[ᗅᗺᗷᗅ]

With the release Friday of a tape featuring Donald Trump making disparaging remarks about women, including bragging about sexual predatory conduct, an avalanche of Republican leaders are disowning their presidential candidate. This includes his own running mate, Mike Pence, who canceled a campaign appearance Saturday. It's gettin' ugly out there. In fact a host of GOP leaders are calling for Trump to withdraw and hand the nomination to Pence. After the Indiana governor's breakout performance (at least as far as conservatives are concerned) at the VP debate, they see him as a much more rational, sane, and — most importantly — presidential choice. They see him, in short, as a savior.

 

And perhaps he will prove to be. But it is not at all clear what would happen if Donald Trump stepped aside. It has never happened before. Theoretically the Republican National Committee could hand the nomination to anyone they chose, but in practice the process has been a democratic one in modern times. If Trump steps aside look for Ted Cruz to make an argument that he is the next logical successor, as the one who received the second-most delegates in the primaries. But something tells me that ain't gonna fly. Still, at the very least it would be a legal quagmire, and would most likely take weeks to work out.

 

Still, it seems likely that the nomination would go to Pence if Trump stepped aside, which, at the moment, he is vowing vociferously not to do. It is the simplest solution and, crucially, the fastest. The election is only a month away, and they would want Pence to assume the nomination in time for the third presidential debate.

 

This election just keeps getting better and better.

[*Anastasia]

The question I have is about the ballots. Granted, discussing American ballots, where every state regulates the ballots and in some states individual counties are responsible for designing and printing them, is always a quagmire—but surely there's some sort of nomination deadline to make sure the candidates running are the ones who appear on the ballots? More to the point, surely with the election a month out, that's already passed? Even with the rise of electronic voting, paper ballots are still a thing in many (most?) areas, and printing and distributing the numbers needed to run a federal election is neither a small task nor a small expense, and I'd be astonished if Trump's name wasn't already on ballots stacked in some warehouse.

I would presume that any votes for a withdrawn candidate would effectively be for his running mate, or would be forfeited altogether, not for whomever the party chose to replace him—votes are, after all, theoretically cast for people, not parties. Since that would effectively just boost Clinton, if there's even a remote chance all the ballots couldn't be fixed in time, the RNC would seem foolish to pick anyone but Pence, at least in my eyes.

Then again, they'd seem foolish to pick anyone but Pence regardless. He's infinitely more electable than either Trump or Cruz—or the other name I've heard being tossed around: that of Mitt Romney.

[ᗅᗺᗷᗅ]

Oh it would be a legal and logistical shitshow, that's for sure. Because yes, Ana is correct, ballots are a state thing. In some places it's a county thing. The sheer amount of legwork that would be necessary to change the ballots to list Mike Pence as the nominee is mind-boggling — assuming it is even legally possible to do so.

 

Bottom line: Someone has to take the oath on January 20th. After the election, the electors meet to cast their votes, the infamous electoral votes, the ones that really matter. Electors are not actually compelled to vote for the candidate who won their state, nor any particular candidate. They could pick anyone. It would cause a huge uproar, of course, but in the end there would be no legal redress. The electors are ultimately supreme. They have a lot of power, should they choose to exercise it.

 

As to what would happen if Trump dropped out, it is not at all clear. For example, just because he might give up the GOP nomination, his name would remain on the ballot. So it is possible he could still be elected even if he "dropped out" and abdicated the Republican nomination.

 

As to who would inherit that nomination, no one can say. Nothing like this has ever happened before, there really aren't any contingencies for it. Mike Pence would seem to be the logical choice, but based on whose authority? No one cast a single vote for him in the primaries. You'd better believe that Ted Cruz would launch a legal challenge to any attempt to name Pence the nominee, arguing that he (Cruz) should be the rightful heir since he received the second-most votes. It would take weeks to work out, at least, and there are only 30 days until the election. They don't have a lot of time for legal wrangling, and they don't have time for another convention. They would be in a shambles. It would be a disaster of epic proportions.

Like I said, it just keeps getting better and better.

[sojourner]

I live in Indiana and Pence would make a horrible president, as he was a horrible Governor. If he were the nominee, his history of far right proposals would haunt him.

[Justavictim82]

Trump isn't dropping out. He is trying to wait for this to rotate out of the news cycle and move forward. Americans are very fickle

[*Anastasia]

Electors are not actually compelled to vote for the candidate who won their state, nor any particular candidate. They could pick anyone. It would cause a huge uproar, of course, but in the end there would be no legal redress. The electors are ultimately supreme. They have a lot of power, should they choose to exercise it.

 

Feel like I should clarify this a teensy bit. Yes, the electors are supreme, and whomever they choose to vote for becomes President. However, it's not strictly correct to say there would be no legal redress. There would be no redress against the President-Elect, true, but twenty-seven states compel electors to vote for their pledged candidate, with legal repercussions for failure to do so, and two further states invalidate faithless votes. So for the most part, electors will face repercussions if they decide to go rogue. Not that that's stopped faithless electors in the past.

[He who posts]

[The Dark Empire]

Ain't this boogie a mess

[Redezra]

Some problems with this:

 

1. There's no way in hell Trump will step aside. He's put his brand on the line, that's his everything.
2. Pence is worse than Trump, so in a choice between the two I'd choose Trump.
3. I've actually heard the reason they wouldn't do this is because Trump is already on a significant number of state/county ballots. So, yeah that's logistically infeasible.

What I've heard include such interesting things as the Republicans pulling funding for ground support. No president has won without it, though again this is Trump so he may be able to do it on grassroots alone. What this tells me is that the Republicans are going for a mulligan, they'll target Clinton from day zero, try to paralyze congress again, hopefully taking advantage of the 2018 elections, and then put someone less Trumpy up for 2020.

[Justavictim82]

Some problems with this:

• There's no way in hell Trump will step aside. He's put his brand on the line, that's his everything.
• Pence is worse than Trump, so in a choice between the two I'd choose Trump.
• I've actually heard the reason they wouldn't do this is because Trump is already on a significant number of state/county ballots. So, yeah that's logistically infeasible.

What I've heard include such interesting things as the Republicans pulling funding for ground support. No president has won without it, though again this is Trump so he may be able to do it on grassroots alone. What this tells me is that the Republicans are going for a mulligan, they'll target Clinton from day zero, try to paralyze congress again, hopefully taking advantage of the 2018 elections, and then put someone less Trumpy up for 2020.

This is what the party tried to do after 2012 and look where they ended up. They froze Congress and targeted Obama from day one and the party went radical and nominated Trump. They can't play it both ways. Either they deal with a radical candidate who isn't an idiot and can shut his mouth or the establishment GOP gets fed up and splinters the party.

[ᗅᗺᗷᗅ]

Aww, poor Mike Pence. For a couple of days there he was almost the nominee. Oh well. At least he can always go back to his old job as a Race Bannon impersonator.

[KiWi]

He could very easily get back into the spotlight down the road. This is great exposure for him/he can actually brush off the shit of Trump.

Now, I don't want his shitiness, but I actually would feel fairly safe betting on 8-12 more years for the Democrats.

[ᗅᗺᗷᗅ]

Oh for sure that's the reason he accepted the VP slot. First, there was a chance, however small, that Trump will win, and then Mike Pence gets to move into the naval observatory. Those chances seem to have dwindled in recent weeks, although not disappeared entirely. Still, even if they lose, Pence has at least increased his visibility for 2020. Personally I don't think it's very likely that an unpopular, uberconservative governor with the stink of Trump on him would have much of a chance in four years (assuming Trump loses this year), but who knows? Predicting has become awfully iffy lately...

[Shokkou]

Hi

[voidoid]

This just got quite likely.  Drumpf has shown no grasp of the duties and limits of the job he just backed in to.  He talks as if he is going to be Chairman and CEO of the United States.  I strongly suspect that he will get frustrated when courts and Congress overrule his actions that overstep his authority.  And then he will take his ball and go home to Manhattan, leaving Pence in charge to make all of us attend Baptist church services every Sunday and Wednesday.

 

And it just keeps getting worse.

[*Anastasia]

This just got quite likely.  Drumpf has shown no grasp of the duties and limits of the job he just backed in to.  He talks as if he is going to be Chairman and CEO of the United States.  I strongly suspect that he will get frustrated when courts and Congress overrule his actions that overstep his authority.  And then he will take his ball and go home to Manhattan, leaving Pence in charge to make all of us attend Baptist church services every Sunday and Wednesday.

 

And it just keeps getting worse.

 

Real talk here? Mike Pence scares me a hell of a lot more than Trump. I can at least hold out some minor hope that Trump's actions will be moderated by Congress, or by his cabinet and advisors. Mike Pence has as Governor implemented a lot of policies that scare the shit out of me, and has the political clout to get Congress behind him as President. Until I've seen reason to believe otherwise, four years of Trump presently seems a lot more palatable than four years of Pence.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'd like to see the Donald go: I just hope Pence leaves before him.

[voidoid]

 I can at least hold out some minor hope that Trump's actions will be moderated by Congress, or by his cabinet and advisors. 

 

House and Senate are both Republican and mostly religious whack-jobs like Pence.  Washington is going to run amok for at least two years or until suits work their way to the Supreme Court.  The Supremes are the only check on the other two branches of government for now.  And as for Drumpf's advisors - I can't think of any more useless job.  He doesn't listen to anyone.

 

We are in for a riot of overreach trying to reverse everything that has been enacted since the Civil Rights Act.

[Shokkou]

The Don is here to stay. Let's pause and reflect a moment on what brought him here so we don't make the same mistakes right up to a Republican supermajority.

[Redezra]

WELL I think we can all say that this thread did not see that coming.

 

 

I mean, trump winning, or shokkou showing up... either or, take your pick.

Edited by Redezra, 09 November 2016 - 09:55 AM.

[Shokkou]

I mean, anyone who didn't have something in the back of their head telling them I'd be here when they saw the election called for Trump probably just forgot I existed.