We live in interesting political times.
Once again the inevitable candidate, Hillary Clinton, has been blindsided by a movement she neither understands nor appreciates. In 2008 she got her shit together and fought Barack Obama all the way to the end. She almost — almost — beat him. And Bernie Sanders is no Barack Obama. Don't get me wrong, I love Bernie. But facts is facts. For the time being, at least, Sanders does not enjoy as widespread or diverse a base of support as Obama did in 2008. Here's what I think is going to happen:
The next two contests are Nevada and South Carolina. Up until today, there hadn't been a Nevada poll since Christmas, when Hillary Clinton was way ahead. Nevada is notoriously difficult to poll because of its large transient population and explosive growth. Plus it's a caucus, which are notoriously difficult to poll to begin with. So very few organizations are willing to waste the money. But in a new poll released today, Sanders and Clinton are dead even at 45%. That does not bode well for the Lady Clinton. No doubt her ladyship is displeased this evening.
I think Nevada will prove to be fertile ground for Sander's talk of income inequality, and he would do well to focus the bulk of his attention there. South Carolina is probably out of reach for him — although he could no doubt close the gap. Still, as Hillary learned in New Hampshire, a 30-point gap is a tough gap to close. And that's where the latest SC polls have the race there, Clinton 62% to Sanders 32.5%. If he could close that to within single digits it would be a huge moral victory, but I don't think he could do that without sacrificing Nevada. Bernie should hit hard there, and rack up another win.
So, Bernie wins Nevada, Clinton wins South Carolina but not by as much as she thinks. Young black voters are going to turn out for Bernie the way young women turned out for him, and for the same reason — they are not beholden to the old political compacts of their parents' generation. I bet he closes the gap to 15 points, say Clinton 55% to Sanders 40%.
So they'll go into Super Tuesday two for two, but with Clinton more wounded than Bernie.
Now, Bernie will undoubtedly win a few states on Super Tuesday, but in general the calendar looks more friendly to Clinton. I'll do a state-by-state assessment in another post, but consider this: 60% of the delegates will have been won by the end of March. Even if Bernie only averaged 35%, about one-third of the votes/delegates, he would still deny Clinton the nomination until almost May. That's a long, harrowing Spring for Team Clinton. Anything could happen.
Bernie has Secret Service protection now. I bet Hillary wishes she'd Vince Fostered him when she had the chance.
I am torn between what I want to happen and what I think will happen. What I want is for Bernie to run the table, snatch the nomination, and be elected the 45th President of the United States.
But, pragmatically, I think Hillary Clinton will triumph in the end. I don't think Sanders will appeal to as broad and deep a coalition as Obama in '08, and remember, Hillary still almost won that time. I think she'll pull it out this time. I think Bernie will be rewarded with a more progressive party platform, a progressive VP choice (Elizabeth Warren?), and a big, prime-time speaking slot at the convention where he can rage against the machine.