48 replies to this topic

[Shokkou]

 

There it is.

 

EDIT: Terribly sorry. That's not the right link. Silly me. Here's the one I meant to post:

 

http://www.bbc.com/n...s/eu_referendum

Edited by Shokkou, 23 June 2016 - 11:17 PM.

[Redezra]

Predictions:

 

• Cameron's gonna lose his job
• Scotland will leave the UK, try rejoin the EU
• Northern Ireland may leave for a reunion with Ireland.
• Wales and England sink into economic mediocrity.

May happen, may not happen, but that's the feeling I've got for the next decade.

[Shokkou]

I agree with three of those, and I am ok with three of those. Wales and England may fall into a slump for a short period while they untangle themselves from the EU but I don't think they're going to just fizzle. My prediction would be a few years of economic upheaval, because it is easier to integrate with a system like the EU than it is to detach from it, followed by a recovery. The EU dream is what's fizzling. France and the Netherlands, and possibly even Italy, might be having their own referendums to leave. I don't expect economic co-operation between European nations to disintegrate in its wake however. They're still neighbors and they'll still benefit from trade with one another, it'll just be on their own terms rather than those set by a bunch of distant bureaucrats in Brussels. You can't take a diverse group of cultures like those spread across the entirety of Europe and expect a one-size-fits-all approach to resonate.

[He who posts]

distant bureaucrats in Brussels

2 hour car trip btw, nothing like the local one that does whatever it likes except for what the people want that is just 30 minutes away but not really that distant. It's so easy to leave for the UK because they kicked and screamed all the way while dragging their feet and grabbing every object near. Sure the EU is an undemocratic shithole with world government fetishist all around but us Dutchies leaving would be doing Sudoku by leaving. We heavily rely on being the EU port and a place to do some lovely tax evasion at. The EU would simply chose to invest in another port doing a bit more than just fucking over as there would be a 180 needed, meanwhile we still feel and get fucked by the US and local housing bubble from years back barely producing growth.

Edited by xoindotnler, 24 June 2016 - 12:32 AM.

[Shokkou]

Sure the EU is an undemocratic shithole with world government fetishist all around

Thanks

[He who posts]

Sure the EU is an undemocratic shithole with world government fetishist all around

Thanks

No probs buddy, but my politics probably a 2 edgy 4 u.

[Shokkou]

 

Sure the EU is an undemocratic shithole with world government fetishist all around

Thanks

No probs buddy, but my politics probably a 2 edgy 4 u.

[Manoka]

As the EU dissolves, it will invite attacks from foreign entities, and then we'll have a WWIII.

[He who posts]

 

 

Sure the EU is an undemocratic shithole with world government fetishist all around

Thanks

No probs buddy, but my politics probably a 2 edgy 4 u.

[*Anastasia]

I agree with three of those, and I am ok with three of those. Wales and England may fall into a slump for a short period while they untangle themselves from the EU but I don't think they're going to just fizzle. My prediction would be a few years of economic upheaval, because it is easier to integrate with a system like the EU than it is to detach from it, followed by a recovery. The EU dream is what's fizzling. France and the Netherlands, and possibly even Italy, might be having their own referendums to leave. I don't expect economic co-operation between European nations to disintegrate in its wake however. They're still neighbors and they'll still benefit from trade with one another, it'll just be on their own terms rather than those set by a bunch of distant bureaucrats in Brussels. You can't take a diverse group of cultures like those spread across the entirety of Europe and expect a one-size-fits-all approach to resonate.

 

That might be the most reasonable political opinion you've ever expressed. I can't decide if I should be proud I'm getting to you or worried you're getting to me.

[Shokkou]

I agree with three of those, and I am ok with three of those. Wales and England may fall into a slump for a short period while they untangle themselves from the EU but I don't think they're going to just fizzle. My prediction would be a few years of economic upheaval, because it is easier to integrate with a system like the EU than it is to detach from it, followed by a recovery. The EU dream is what's fizzling. France and the Netherlands, and possibly even Italy, might be having their own referendums to leave. I don't expect economic co-operation between European nations to disintegrate in its wake however. They're still neighbors and they'll still benefit from trade with one another, it'll just be on their own terms rather than those set by a bunch of distant bureaucrats in Brussels. You can't take a diverse group of cultures like those spread across the entirety of Europe and expect a one-size-fits-all approach to resonate.

 

That might be the most reasonable political opinion you've ever expressed. I can't decide if I should be proud I'm getting to you or worried you're getting to me.

Oh, it's definitely the latter. I would think your continued warming to memes and shitposting should be enough evidence of that. That being said, your first statement is a bit weird considering there isn't really a political opinion anywhere in that post outside the first and last sentences. Everything else is my own prediction mixed with some information I've gathered and sprinkled with a bit of interpretation for good measure.

[Justavictim82]

Predictions:

• Cameron's gonna lose his job
• Scotland will leave the UK, try rejoin the EU
• Northern Ireland may leave for a reunion with Ireland.
• Wales and England sink into economic mediocrity.

May happen, may not happen, but that's the feeling I've got for the next decade.

#1 has already come true

[Shokkou]

Predictions:

• Cameron's gonna lose his job
• Scotland will leave the UK, try rejoin the EU
• Northern Ireland may leave for a reunion with Ireland.
• Wales and England sink into economic mediocrity.

May happen, may not happen, but that's the feeling I've got for the next decade.

#1 has already come true

That it has, and Scotland is already talking about a second vote for independence so they can rejoin the EU. No word yet (that I've heard) on Ireland, though whether they do or don't try I won't really be surprised. The GBP has, as the Remain camp has been quick to point out and slow to stop harping on about, dropped by some whole ten cents on the dollar relative to USD although markets reacting skittishly to change really should come as no surprise to anyone and the value of the Pound has already begun to recover. It hit a high point of 1.5 at around 6pm my time, dropped as low as 1.32 at around midnight, and by 5am was already back up to almost 1.4.

 

UPDATE: So there's this on the matter of Ireland:

http://www.bbc.com/n...reland-36622120

Admittedly, my understanding of their political situation is not as robust as it could be but there is now an official response from the leadership in Northern Ireland.

Edited by Shokkou, 24 June 2016 - 07:15 AM.

[KiWi]

I know I'm not being high brow:

but it just makes me feel so god damn smug I could hurt myself if I was less careful.

Europe doesn't want to be ruled by central blah blah blah blah. This is one of the biggest differences I see (and will try to illustrate) between America and Europe (as a whole of course). They're just not the same. It's a different scale. A different world.

America is big, and one united country (spare me on 'United') that is grossly many things (inefficient among others), but it's what you get. And then you have Europe which tried more central organization, but it's not exactly working. See soci-economic, Spain, Italy, UK being a douche.

Europe isn't magically better than America, and America isn't magically better. There's a reason for why things work out the way they did, and the competing interests have different strengths, and it's just so much more complicated than people want to make it.

tl;dr
I feel so smug it hurts. I'm a turd.

America Rules. Europe drools.

[King Biscuit]

Spain wants Gibraltar(sp) back now too.
Scotland is talking referendum 2.0.

It's gonna be a blood bath.

[*Anastasia]

I know I'm not being high brow:

but it just makes me feel so god damn smug I could hurt myself if I was less careful.

Europe doesn't want to be ruled by central blah blah blah blah. This is one of the biggest differences I see (and will try to illustrate) between America and Europe (as a whole of course). They're just not the same. It's a different scale. A different world.

 

I think you'll find there's plenty of American secessionism if you scratch the surface a little. That doesn't mean Americans aren't proud to be American (just as Europeans would be proud to be European if it didn't sound so damned racist), just that if leaving the US were as easy as holding a referendum, it could and would happen. Love it or hate it, the fact remains that only the threat of an armed response keeps Americans under the federal yoke, and even that failed once before.

[*Anastasia]

Spain wants Gibraltar(sp) back now too.

 

They've wanted Gibraltar back from the moment they lost it. They're still not going to get it. Gibraltarians, unlike Scots, actually like being British, and if the Brits'll travel halfway around the goddamned globe to defend some sheep-fuckers in the Malvinas, a little economic setback from leaving the EU ain't gonna stop 'em from defending their own backyard.

[KiWi]

 
I think you'll find there's plenty of American secessionism if you scratch the surface a little. That doesn't mean Americans aren't proud to be American (just as Europeans would be proud to be European if it didn't sound so damned racist), just that if leaving the US were as easy as holding a referendum, it could and would happen. Love it or hate it, the fact remains that only the threat of an armed response keeps Americans under the federal yoke, and even that failed once before.
 

There is, but not nearly as much as in Europe. At least I don't believe so. America is homogenized. Or rather, the sectors that are secessionist, aren't local to one area. They may want a Independent, this or that, but too many Americans consider the whole of America-America. At least the parts they want.

You can compare, and I have no clue what European pride looks like, however your point is a good one; it would come off racist.

It is not as easy as holding a referendum. Because people *know* you can not leave America, people would not leave. I don't want to disagree, just for the sake of disagreeing, but I believe it's a chicken & egg problem. Now if someone made the first move, it would start to splinter America, but as is, I see serious moves for secession as impossible. And not because of an armed threat. America is too integrated.

And to be fair, when it was tested before, there wasn't technically a ruling that said states couldn't leave. We were still quite the new nation. The Civil War set the precedent, and we have the amendment that States can not leave, but at the time it wasn't as "set in stone".

[*Anastasia]

The Civil War set the precedent, and we have the amendment that States can not leave, but at the time it wasn't as "set in stone".

 

I'm not saying the Civil War didn't set a precedent, but I'm not sure it was a legal one. To my knowledge there's no actual constitutional bar on secession, just the history of armed response and the opinions of various jurists who have been asked the question now and then. Of course, people may question the legality, but I don't think anyone questions the idea it'd receive a chilly welcome.

 

The rest of your post made some good points, though.

[ᗅᗺᗷᗅ]

The Brexit vote is surprising, to say the least. Interesting how many Brits apparently voted for the Brexit without fully understanding the consequences, or even believing that it would pass. It seems as though a lot of people voted to leave as a kind of protest, perhaps hoping to send a message to the establishment. Since the vote Brits have been frantically Googling "European Union" and what it means that they are about to leave it. This is not a great omen for those of us who are worried about a Trump presidency. How many people in this country might vote for Trump "just to see what happens" or in an effort to shake up the system enough to bring about broad scale change? Ugh.

Ironically, with Cameron's resignation, the odds-on favorite to be PM is Boris Johnson, aka BoJo, widely seen as Britain's answer to Trump. Another boorish loudmouth with terrible-looking blond hair...