Thassa lotta colons.
Well, as Thrash rightly points out, I have been quite of late. Alas, this has had little to nothing to do with the current state of politics in the United States, woeful and entertaining tho they most surely are. But more on that elsewhere. As for politics...
Trump. Jesus Hussein Christ. If I had woken up from being in a coma for the last 18 months, and someone sat me down and told me what has been going on, I would not have believed them. This has been hands-down the most amazing election cycle I have ever seen. And as a well educated student of political history, I can say with some small authority that it is one of the most unusual elections ever.
Trump has proven to be a disaster so much worse than anything I ever predicted, that's for sure. But I don't feel bad. I don't think too many people saw this coming.
It certainly looks now like Trump is going to lose, and lose big. I believe I once described such a defeat as being "Goldwater-like," and that is the sobriquet currently being thrown around by the talking heads. But I'm not as confident as most. I think there is a deep well of support for Trump out there, possibly deeper than polling reflects. Trump supporters, in general, do not strike me as the type to take polls. They don't care that he is lying, they don't care that he is crazy, all they care about is that he is going to stick it to those egghead elites. That's really what this is all about. Call it dumb white anger. And there are a LOT of dumb, angry white people out there. No doubt a few will respond to this thread.
This dumb white anger factor is what pushed the Brexit vote, and it was entirely unaccounted for by polling. No one saw it coming. The same thing could happen here. Donald Trump could have shitty polls right up until election day and still win. I am not saying that will happen, but it could. I would put the chances at about 30%.
My gut kinda wants to make it higher than that, though. This is the pessimist in me. Americans usually get the president we deserve, and maybe we deserve President Donald Trump. Roll that over on your tongue for a while.
Why can't we use nukes, he asked repeatedly.
I hope Hillary Clinton wins. Not because I like her, because I don't. And I am not going to vote for her (more on that below). But she is sane. She is not an ignorant, racist, self-obsessed egomaniac. She is not dangerous — or at least not any more so than the current president. The same cannot be said for Trump.
Why can't we use nukes?
As for me, I am voting for Gary Johnson and Bill Weld. This may come as a shock to some of you who know me well, as I have often stated that voting for a third party candidate is tantamount to throwing your vote away. But hear me out; there is method to my flip-flopping.
I live in Massachusetts. I can tell you who Massachusetts is going to vote for in November, and in every November for every election to come for the foreseeable future: whoever has a (D) next to their name. We are the bluest of states, and can reliably be counted on to choose the democratic candidate in all but the most extreme circumstances. I would remind you that the 2012 Republican candidate, Mitt Romney, was from our state and was its former governor, but we still didn't vote for him. The Bay State's electoral votes are well and truly accounted for, and thus it is safe for me to use my vote for other ends.
In this case, for the Libertarian party to overtake the woebegotten Republicans as the main center-right party in the US. Let the GOP become the Whigs of the 21st century. While I disagree with many Libertarian policies, I do not believe they are extremists. In fact, I know they are not. Because I know one of them.
William Weld is not only the former governor of Massachsuetts, he is a friend and distant relation to my family. I have met him on several occasions; he knows me by my first name (I have always called him "Governor"). So when I say I know Bill Weld, I don't just mean as a former constituent. And while I do not agree with all of his politics, Bill Weld is that rarest thing in politics: a man of honor and moral conviction. (He is also delightfully avuncular.) Bill Weld understands that government is not the enemy, and that there are certain roles that only government can fulfill. Bill Weld will not let people go hungry, nor let the sick go untreated. In fact, he and his running mate said as much during the Libertarian town hall on CNN. I don't know Gary Johnson. He seems like a nice guy, and I like a lot (but not all) of what he says. But I have no reason to trust him. Bill Weld is another story. I know Bill Weld, I trust Bill Weld. If he vouches for Johnson, then Johnson is the real deal.
Don't get me wrong, the Libertarians cannot win. They simply do not have the money. But if they can get to 15% in the polls they will be allowed in the debates, and that could change the equation in some really interesting ways. I still wouldn't foresee a win, but it is not inconceivable that the Libertarians could come in second, relegating Trump and the GOP to third. That would be AWESOME.
But yeah, we're prolly gonna get Hillary Clinton. First woman president yadda, yadda, yadda.