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Jorost's Political Predictions: US Midterm Elections


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#1 ᗅᗺᗷᗅ

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Posted 25 October 2014 - 08:15 PM

In a word: Republicans.

 

It's really no surprise. The party in the White House almost always loses off-year elections. The president's approval ratings hover in the low 40s, solidly "meh" territory, and in some regions it is much lower. Enthusiasm among Democrats is low, while the energy level on the Republican side, especially among Tea Party conservatives, is high. The conditions are ripe for a Republican year.

 

I predict the Republicans will pick up enough seats to control the Senate, probably 52-53. Iowa, Alaska, Kentucky, Colorado, Louisiana, and Arkansas — all closely watched and hotly contested races — will all go Republican. A couple of Democratic incumbents will be unseated.

 

The Democrats are also going to lose the Massachusetts governor's race to the Republican Charlie Baker, a big psychological blow. I think the only bright spot for Democrats on election night will be that Scott Brown will be defeated in his bid to return to the senate, this time from New Hampshire.

 

Republicans will also pick up seats in the House. ElectionProjection.com currently has it at 240 Republicans to 195 Democrats. That sounds about right.

 

It's going to be a bad night for Democrats.





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#2 Justavictim82

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Posted 26 October 2014 - 07:08 AM

Brownback should lose his seat in Kansas

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#3 Redezra

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Posted 26 October 2014 - 09:57 AM

Come on Imperialist party! :D



#4 ᗅᗺᗷᗅ

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Posted 26 October 2014 - 05:20 PM

I think we should start a political party. The Invicta Party. I wonder how one goes about registering a political party?



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#5 TheSchu

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Posted 26 October 2014 - 05:36 PM

One state at a time.

Personally, I recommend we start in the state of Belgium, their system is much more friendly to new parties than those snobs in the US...



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#6 KiWi

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Posted 26 October 2014 - 08:01 PM

If we got a place... perhaps one named "Invicta" and started there, yea.

I'd move. Would overlord Jorost.

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#7 ᗅᗺᗷᗅ

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Posted 28 October 2014 - 09:28 AM

I looked it up. In the United States it's laughably easy. Basically, anyone can call themselves a political group. Until you've spent $1,000 on a political campaign you don't actually have to do anything. After that you need to register with the FEC. So we could set up an Invicta Party very easily. All we'd need is a web site...



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#8 King Biscuit

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Posted 28 October 2014 - 09:51 AM

I looked it up. In the United States it's laughably easy. Basically, anyone can call themselves a political group. Until you've spent $1,000 on a political campaign you don't actually have to do anything. After that you need to register with the FEC. So we could set up an Invicta Party very easily. All we'd need is a web site...

 

And wouldn't you know it, we already have a symbol to rival a Donkey and an Elephant.



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#9 Dre4mwe4ver

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Posted 28 October 2014 - 12:51 PM

I have no problem with and would like to help with not spending $1,000.

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#10 Redezra

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Posted 29 October 2014 - 05:53 AM

You should campaign on the premise of FREEDUM and SMALL GOVERMANS. You'll get all the votes.



#11 Shokkou

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Posted 29 October 2014 - 10:51 AM

You should campaign on the premise of FREEDUM and SMALL GOVERMANS. You'll get all the votes.

It'd be a total lie coming from Jorost, just like every other political candidate's campaign! It's perfect!



#12 Daniel P

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Posted 29 October 2014 - 11:08 AM

Things are bad for the democratic party when people is leaving while Obama is speaking.

 

http://www.weeklysta...sin_817679.html



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#13 ᗅᗺᗷᗅ

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Posted 29 October 2014 - 11:59 AM

Meh. Obama's a good speaker, for sure. But the problem is that he's all talk. Nothing ever comes from all his pretty words. Even his own party has gotten sick of it.



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#14 ᗅᗺᗷᗅ

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Posted 14 November 2014 - 09:00 AM

I predict the Republicans will pick up enough seats to control the Senate, probably 52-53. Iowa, Alaska, Kentucky, Colorado, Louisiana, and Arkansas — all closely watched and hotly contested races — will all go Republican. A couple of Democratic incumbents will be unseated.

 

The Democrats are also going to lose the Massachusetts governor's race to the Republican Charlie Baker, a big psychological blow. I think the only bright spot for Democrats on election night will be that Scott Brown will be defeated in his bid to return to the senate, this time from New Hampshire.

 

Republicans will also pick up seats in the House. ElectionProjection.com currently has it at 240 Republicans to 195 Democrats. That sounds about right.

 

It's going to be a bad night for Democrats.

 

Time to check my score.

 

I said 52-53 Republicans in the Senate. After election night there will be 53. All the races I said would go Republican did so with the exception of Louisiana, which has gone into a runoff (current polls have the Democrat, Mary Landrieu, down by 16 points). So if that goes the way it looks like it is going, in January the Senate will have 54 Republicans, 44 Democrats, and 2 independents (both of whom caucus with the Democrats).

 

Charlie Baker won in Massachusetts, and Scott Brown was indeed defeated in New Hampshire.

 

I said 240-195 for the House. Actual election results have it at 244-186, a net pickup of 12 seats for the GOP (5 elections have yet to be decided).

 

So overall my forecast was fairly close, although it turned out to be a slightly more Republican night than even I predicted.



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#15 Redezra

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Posted 14 November 2014 - 10:35 AM

Nice :D



#16 Justavictim82

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Posted 14 November 2014 - 12:06 PM

People in this country are stupid. All they care about is partisan politics and don't give a shit about issues. All the look for is R or D next to a name and pull the lever. How the fuck did Brownback win in Kansas? The state is in financial meltdown with his policies of Trickle down economics but yet the people of Kansas voted him another term because he had a big old R next to his name and his opponent was struck in a horrible scandal of gasp GOING TO A STRIP CLUB A DECADE AGO. We have criminals and adulterous douchebags winning elections when a decade ago they would have never gotten the financing to even fucking run for office but a guy has a girl grind on his junk and that is a fucking scandal in 2014?

Fuck this country

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