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The implications of the Russian invasion of Crimea- The new Cold war


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#1 Manoka

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Posted 15 November 2014 - 02:15 AM

The implications of the Russian invasion of Crimea- The new Cold war
 
In my other two threads, I talked somewhat in depth about the growing tensions with the government of Russia, and the resistance we've had when dealing with Russian in Syrian waters. Now, Russia seems to be emboldened by political successes at home, banning any propaganda which is does not promote "traditional values"[1][2][3], so vaguely worded that by itself it practically gives their government absolute authority over the country, and by their actions in Syria. After sending warships in an effort to block U.N. and American involvement in Syria [1][2][3], Russia quickly invaded Crimea after the previous prime minister resigned, in a period of weakness for Ukraine, and formally overtook the territory of Crimea. Now claiming to lack involvement in the uprisings in eastern Ukraine, bordering Russia, where numerous "demonstrations" have taken place, NATO and the U.S. have illustrated Russian support for the rebel forces, as well as direct involvement and movement of troops into the territory. [1][2][3]
 
The implications of this are staggering, as multiple embargos have already been placed on Russia, Europe, and the U.S., with Russia taking it the next step and banning food imports from these country's all together.  Rather than act through a proxy, Russia has directly, with it's own troops, invaded the Ukraine, which is an extremely huge step up in military related problems. The U.N. general assembly has voted 100 to 11 to condemn Russia's actions; most everyone agrees that Russia is at fault, but since all actions risk total war, legitimate military resistance has been sparse, largely to try to persuade Russia to stop their actions through diplomatic means, which as of now have all but failed. 
 
 
Russia initially denied it's involvement in Crimea, sending in military units without insignia or clear methods of identification, nor without announcing it (technically a violation of the geneva convention),  but came clean after their military successes in the region, capturing it and placing it under Russian control. They now seem to be stepping up their involvement in Ukraine, and have tried to deny their involvement once again, by up to and including, suggesting that entire Russian military unit's went on vacations for the holiday in the midst of a warzone in Ukraine, naturally bringing all of their Russian issued equipment with them and massacring civilians. With all their guns and equipment and siding with the rebels and mowing down entire cities. The fact that this is an event that is occurring on the world stage boggles my mind. There are no words. 
 
There's plenty of proof of Russia's involvement including satellite data [1][2][3][4], including NATO and the U.S. claiming they're there, plenty of photographic evidence showing soldiers in uniform and with specific weapons, including special forces, and providing equipment (such as tanks) and artillery bombardment [1]. They've mobilized forces under the guise of humanitarian support, which is likely going to destroy their credibility for a long time; particularly important is that they claimed to be delivering the aid with the support of the Red Cross, who did not actually support their actions. [1][2][3][4][5]
 
 
The question is, how do we respond to this crisis? Over 200,000 people have died in Syria, and there are over 3 million refugees. 
 
Furthermore, if Russia succeeds in taking over all the areas in Europe it wants it'll violate the will and rights of the people, and lead them under an oppressive and discriminatory government. If we challenge Russia, we may witness major economic problem's, particularly for the average person, if not all out war. In the meantime, Russia continues to arm and back genocidal dictators and generally immoral people around the world, as thousands die from Russian arms sold to the country's for meager profits.
 
 
The only thing that keeps war between the U.S. and Russia cold is the presence of the nuclear deterrent, of which seems to be of lesser important in preventing Russia from engaging in conventional warfare. With the illusion of the nuclear deterrent shattered, Russia has taken upon itself to begin invading eastern Europe, barely containing their involvement, just enough to make it appear as if the rest of the world will be making the first move, and has more or less continued to ignore the international community. 
 
I fear this is the start of another cold war, or some significantly worse. With Russian bomber planes flying closer to the U.S. and NATO at any point during the cold war, now weekly, we are closer to an all out nuclear war than the world has ever seen; this may even be the beginning of WWIII.[1][2][3] With an attempt to desensitize the American populace of an incoming Russian attack, these test flights not only allow them to gather data about how to best respond to our defenses, but allow them to get closer to the U.S. without the ability to truly predict if the next wave of aircraft will truly be there for an attack, meaning the nuclear bombing of the U.S. could be just around the corner. Or an accidental attack of Russian craft, thus starting a war of some kind. 
 
 "I know not with what weapons WWIII will be fought with, but WWIV will be fought with sticks and stones"- Albert Einstein.

Edited by Manoka, 18 November 2014 - 10:04 PM.




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#2 Manoka

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Posted 15 November 2014 - 02:16 AM

afasdfsdf


Edited by Manoka, 15 November 2014 - 02:24 AM.


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#3 Chax

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Posted 18 November 2014 - 05:51 AM

Russia cannot sustain this kind of activity for a long period of time. No country can, but they're in a less sturdy position than we are. Besides, starting a nuclear war with a bunch of bombers is a pretty awful way to do it. Provided they could sneak one of their 3 (4?) active Delta IIIs across the Pacific without tripping on any of our SSNs, in a way that fools our satellites into thinking they aren't in port (because we track that, and much of that is dictated by various treaties), they could potentially fire a cruise missile, provided the Russians have that sort of capability on the Delta (I honestly have no idea). Skim the ocean with those, you get your strikes in before we can even detect them, especially with the OTH-B in Christmas Valley, Oregon decommissioned. I mean, they could try coming through the Atlantic, but between the GUIK line and the immense load of fuckery that is the North Atlantic, with various navies sailing around pretending to uphold freedom or whatever, and the odds of sneaking out that way are pretty damned slim. 

 

Plus they don't want to fuck with the F-35. It's the ultimate doomsday weapon. Even after we're all gone, F-35s will still be taxiing around at high speed, water-soaked tail section sagging while its stubby wings, like the malformed limbs of a Thalidomide baby, bounce in the wind, desperately trying but ultimately failing to give this Dodo flight. They'll eventually come to realize that humans abandoned them, destroyed their climate-controlled hangars and left them to shiver in the sub-70 degree weather. The begin flocking, herding, hunting together. Wherever they find a pilot, they kill it and themselves in a dramatic fireball of taxpayer dollars and Lockheed-Martin cocaine funds. 



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Posted 18 November 2014 - 09:10 AM

Russia's being backed into a corner. Their economy is taking a lot of damage as a result of the Ukrainian adventure. Eventually they will reach a breaking point. And then what? Nothing good.



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#5 King Biscuit

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Posted 18 November 2014 - 04:18 PM

Russia's being backed into a corner. Their economy is taking a lot of damage as a result of the Ukrainian adventure. Eventually they will reach a breaking point. And then what? Nothing good.

 

"When people have nothing to lose, they lose it." - Gerald Celente



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#6 Manoka

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Posted 18 November 2014 - 10:05 PM

Russia cannot sustain this kind of activity for a long period of time. No country can, but they're in a less sturdy position than we are. Besides, starting a nuclear war with a bunch of bombers is a pretty awful way to do it. Provided they could sneak one of their 3 (4?) active Delta IIIs across the Pacific without tripping on any of our SSNs, in a way that fools our satellites into thinking they aren't in port (because we track that, and much of that is dictated by various treaties), they could potentially fire a cruise missile, provided the Russians have that sort of capability on the Delta (I honestly have no idea). Skim the ocean with those, you get your strikes in before we can even detect them, especially with the OTH-B in Christmas Valley, Oregon decommissioned. I mean, they could try coming through the Atlantic, but between the GUIK line and the immense load of fuckery that is the North Atlantic, with various navies sailing around pretending to uphold freedom or whatever, and the odds of sneaking out that way are pretty damned slim. 

 

Plus they don't want to fuck with the F-35. It's the ultimate doomsday weapon. Even after we're all gone, F-35s will still be taxiing around at high speed, water-soaked tail section sagging while its stubby wings, like the malformed limbs of a Thalidomide baby, bounce in the wind, desperately trying but ultimately failing to give this Dodo flight. They'll eventually come to realize that humans abandoned them, destroyed their climate-controlled hangars and left them to shiver in the sub-70 degree weather. The begin flocking, herding, hunting together. Wherever they find a pilot, they kill it and themselves in a dramatic fireball of taxpayer dollars and Lockheed-Martin cocaine funds. 

That's silly, an F-35 has self automation, but like a drone, it still ultimately needs a human operator. That is until 2023, when it becomes self aware, and fires a nuke at the Russians...


Edited by Manoka, 18 November 2014 - 10:30 PM.


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#7 Redezra

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Posted 19 November 2014 - 09:50 AM

Russia's being backed into a corner. Their economy is taking a lot of damage as a result of the Ukrainian adventure. Eventually they will reach a breaking point. And then what? Nothing good.

 

Hmmmm....

 

*goes back to reading Tom Clancy books*



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Posted 19 November 2014 - 05:27 PM

I would say that, given recent events, the likelihood of the United States becoming involved in a war with Russia have gone from "unlikely" to "not implausible." Consider: We have an outgoing American president widely seen as weak on foreign policy. His indecisiveness and lack of a clear direction on Syria did nothing to dispel this image. We also have a Russian president backed into a corner, with his economy tanking under the weight of sanctions, the ruble collapsing, and the price of his main export, oil and gas, at an all-time low (interesting, that). And now he's sending tanks into Ukraine.

 

What would happen if Russia offered a more direct challenge to American power? What if they invaded one of the Baltic states, for example? What if they started meddling in Poland's affairs the way they have done in Ukraine? These countries are NATO members now, and the NATO treaty leaves little room for ambiguity. An attack on one is an attack on all. Would the United States honor the treaty? Would Britain? Would Germany? I'm not so sure. If not it would mean the end of NATO.

 

I would say to the Baltic states (Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia): Be afraid. Be very afraid. Putin is a man who imagines empire; if he gets his way in Ukraine, as seems all but inevitable, he will turn his eyes upon you. Your NATO membership will not protect you. The United States, Britain, France, and Germany will find some way to wriggle out of it, some half-measure or flurry of diplomatic sturm and drang. But it will come to nothing. If push came to shove, I think the NATO alliance would crumble.

 

The only real question is whether Putin knows this. I think he probably does, but knowing it and feeling confident enough in it to actually take the plunge is something else. Watch for his methods to be insidious, as in Ukraine, probably beginning with meddling in local politics. If there are large ethnic Russian populations in a country he will probably use this to his advantage, perhaps labeling the elected government racist or anti-Russian or fascist. Or all three. I call that playing the WW2 card, a diplomatic stratagem Russia has employed many times in the past. This won't work much longer, I think, as there is now too much distance between WW2 and the general European public of today. It remains to be seen whether the Baltics would be the breaking point, but I do not think so.

 

Poland is another story. Poland is a large nation with a lot of political and economic clout, not to mention close ties to Germany, Europe's economic engine. A Russian invasion of Poland would mark the beginning of WW3, and I don't think even Putin is that bold. But that does not mean he might not seek to interfere with Poland in any number of less overt ways.

 

George Friedman, the historian and futurist whose book The Next 100 Years I often cite (and highly recommend), believes that a war between the United States and Russia will take place some time in the early 21st century. He also predicted more or less exactly what is happening in Ukraine, right down to the time frame.



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#9 Redezra

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Posted 19 November 2014 - 06:40 PM

When does he predict that the cyborg overlords will conquer earth?



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Posted 19 November 2014 - 06:51 PM

Not in the next 100 years, anyway.



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#11 Redezra

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Posted 19 November 2014 - 09:07 PM

Damn. I wanted to set an alarm.

 

*in a dark future, Redezra's cyborg army is poised to destroy the last bastion of free thought in the world, when her antique cellphone blinks. A notification? At this hour?*

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#12 King Biscuit

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Posted 20 November 2014 - 09:53 PM

Not in the next 100 years, anyway.

 

 

From The Next 100 Years:

 

 

V4myYM3.jpg

 

Spot on.

 

I love this book!

 

Interesting thought:

We're busy with ISIS, if Russia challenges NATO any time soon, we would be less likely to back them, especially the Baltics.

 

:drevil:



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#13 Justavictim82

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Posted 24 January 2015 - 11:25 AM

https://news.vice.co...urce=vicenewsfb relevent grave dig

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Posted 27 January 2015 - 02:35 AM

Funny how oil prices have tanked, plunging the Russian economy into chaos and putting Putin in a precarious position. It's almost as if the financial oligarchy that controls the US government has some pull with the oil industry. Oh wait...



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#15 the rebel

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Posted 27 January 2015 - 03:19 PM

Funny how oil prices have tanked, plunging the Russian economy into chaos and putting Putin in a precarious position. It's almost as if the financial oligarchy that controls the US government has some pull with the oil industry. Oh wait...


OPEC could keep production high to cut the profit margin of US fracking to unsustainable levels... Oh wait...

Could be worse though could be war as countries fight for resources, whether to curb inflation or cut another's resource.

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Posted 27 January 2015 - 04:12 PM

Putin's expansionism has even got longtime hippy-dippy peaceniks like Sweden riled. And the European economy is tepid at best, teetering at worst, depending upon your prognosticator of choice. So far the US has emerged from the global financial crisis largely unscathed. It is foolish to make blanket predictions like "war is inevitable," but it is true that there are several geopolitical threads emerging that could easily become tangled enough to end in war. As Westerners we have lived in a peaceful and stable world for a LONG time, historically speaking. Basically it's been smooth sailing in what was once known as the First World since the end of WW2. And certainly since about 1950 or so (a convenient year) standards of living have steadily increased in the West. We have never known war, hardship, or deprivation in any serious way. It's been 65 years of peace and stability. Historically speaking, that's an aberration. Yes, the '60s were tumultuous, but the upheavals seen then were minor compared to historical crises. There has been no plague, no famine, no war in Western Europe or North America in nearly seventy years. Unprecedented. Statistically speaking, we're overdue for something to happen. But of course that's the thing with historical data — it is not always effective at predicting future outcomes. New and unanticipated factors may change the equation. Take, for example, the impact of technology on human lives. Or the likelihood that by midcentury the human population will have plateaued, after which it will begin — for the first time in human history — to decline NOT as the result of some disaster. The Black Plague wiped out half of Europe but it also provided the opportunity for the Renaissance by creating a world in which the existing infrastructure suddenly had a lot fewer mouths to feed. Living got easier, culture blossomed, and bang, you've got yourself a Renaissance. So what will happen with the confluence of advanced technology and a declining human population? A Star Trek-like land of futuristic plenty?

If so I want a transporter.



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#17 the rebel

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Posted 27 January 2015 - 04:52 PM

I like historic comparisons you say Russia is on the road to ruin and if it ever got so far down that line, war would be an inevitably.

Preworld war two Germany was in economic tatters and that brought rise to a nationalist who would end up dragging the country into war.

Difference here there is already a nationalist in charge who would probably drag the country into war if he saw no way out of the road to economic tatters.

You have to think the West is telling Russia to do more than words to stop the assistance in eastern Ukraine for the easing and/or removal of sanctions etc... But it won't stop there as giving a little will result in giving a lot as Crimea will be next on the agenda to give.

That is where the proverbial wall will be hit.

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Posted 27 January 2015 - 06:10 PM

Yeah I think we have a bit of a mess to get through before things settle down.



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#19 Manoka

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Posted 21 February 2015 - 04:24 PM

The problem is that Russia has now entered into what is known as a "cool war", with limited combat, and mostly done through proxies, like we saw during Vietnam. 

 

Except unlike during Vietnam, they are sending their own troops to fight in the war, and thus take direct affront to anything that happens to them. 

 

He denies any involvement at first, but as he takes over territory, then talks about the successes they've had. It's a paper thin propaganda campaign (our soldiers were "on vacation"; as were the germans in 1933-1945), but enough to control his own populace and deny any direct responsibility. 

 

 

What people don't seem to understand is the propensity for people to make stupid decisions, even on the global stage; there's no saying Putin really knows the position he's in, and what problem war with America would mean, even for him, as a leader not on the front line.

 

He apparently believes his military is unmatched. Cause a 1/6th the military spending and a quarter the military forces with far less advanced technology means he can't be defeated by anyone we know in an outright war. Or a missile defense system to shoot down the small amount of dwindling, poorly maintenance nukes. 

 

Of course, to us, any city at all, just 1 nuke getting through our defenses, would be tragic, while he doesn't seem to give a fuck if he starves his own people. 


Edited by Manoka, 21 February 2015 - 04:37 PM.


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#20 Chax

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Posted 22 February 2015 - 08:52 AM

If bombs fall on Kyiv, Poland will respond. Mark my words. If Mariupol falls, they will declare a state of emergency. And Kharkov is gonna start seeing tank battles like it saw back in WWII all over again. 

Also just wanted to gloat for a moment, back almost a year ago when some posters on these forums refused to believe that Russian forces were in Crimea and then Putin came out and said that they were, in fact, Russian forces. Lol. Good times .




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