Posted 11 April 2012 - 05:53 PM
Deadlock? You mean like at the Republican convention? No way. With Santorum out Romney's got a clear path.
Or do you mean deadlock in a larger sense? If so, please explain. I happen to think we might be on the cusp of a major societal shift, akin to the one experienced in the 1960s with the civil rights movement. I think issues like gay marriage, the legalization of marijuana, and single-payer healthcare are tilting heavily toward the "liberal" or progressive viewpoint. With the poster child for wealth and privilege the standard bearer for the Republican party, this election is going to be framed in terms of the 1% vs. the 99%. And that's not an argument the right wins. I think the Republicans will lose this election, and then they will be thrown into crisis.
The modern Republican party is based on the union of two factions: Social conservatives (largely Christian evangelical) and fiscal conservatives (Wall Street types). This union worked because at the time it was forged, social mores in this country were relatively conservative. Think of the 1950s.
But things have changed. Society has moved to the left socially. Consider: While we debate the legality of gay marriage, we ignore the minor social miracle that the existence of gay couples is acknowledged and even accepted by a majority of Americans. That was certainly not the case in the 1950s, far from it. And therein lies the problem. For while most of society has moved left on social issues, the religious right has not. In fact, they have remained entrenched in social positions taken when "I Like Ike" was a culturally relevant thing to say. That presents a problem for the Republican party, because Wall Street types like to be in the majority. For one thing, their social positions are probably closer to Democrats than Tea Party types. And for another, it's just good for business. Tolerance -- what the far right sees as "permissiveness" -- sells.
So what's going to happen? Here's what I think: Fiscal conservatives will abandon the Republican party in favor of the Democrats. Despite vocal and ridiculous right-wing claims to the contrary, Barack Obama is actually quite moderate, almost a centrist. He has a very cautious, long-term approach that has been infuriating to some of his far left supporters, who have been frustrated at the rate of change. But his method pays off. It won him the primaries, against the powerful Clinton machine, and it won him the election. I think he is too quick to compromise, but it's hard to say he does not keep his eye on the long-term goal. I think we are going to see steady economic improvement, maybe not explosive growth but steady, and that Wall Street will respond to it.
From 1968-1992 the Republicans essentially had a lock on the presidency. The one aberration was 1976, the first election after Watergate, and even then Jimmy Carter won by only the slimmest of margins. They were able to achieve this because the social scale was tilted in their favor. But all that has changed. Now the social scale is tilted in the Democrats' favor. The Democrats will become the majority party, and while they will pull to the center somewhat, as all majority parties inevitably do, still the mere fact of their majority will pull America to the left. I think we will see all of the things I mentioned (gay marriage, legalized marijuana, and single-payer health care) in the next twenty years. Possibly as little as ten. And I think the Republican party will be relegated to the minority, the party of religious nuts and extremists, much as the Democratic party was the party of hippies and communists for so many years. That would represent a fundamental shift in American politics and a great leap forward for social progress.
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Posted 11 April 2012 - 08:26 PM
tl;dr the country sucks now
you forgot to add that
#19
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Posted 11 April 2012 - 09:47 PM
I see it in a sense that there are a lot of groups of people and no one wants to alienate them. Society is changing yes but not drastically. There is no clear mandate from the people. I agree there is a move to a more liberal view point but I would not say a progressive one. The way I see it is a that both parties are just looking for voters. Remember the populist party. All these societal protests and movements represent a minority of people who just happen to be widely publicized. These issues are being played up. I honestly don't see a clear winner in the election. There is no clear societal shift either. It takes a lot of time to switch from conservative to liberal. It takes time and the health care issue and the gay's rights are only the bits of steam as the water's only just beginning to boil. Although you may hate to admit it liberal progress has regressed too far to change so quickly. I say a dead lock because the country has not given a mandate to change. Obama will most likely get reelected but on slim margins prompting his administration to take a step back and ease off even more. Then what, some new candidate walks in and claims great change when in reality nothing will get done. Remember Kennedy, all his programs failed even when he campaigned on change. There is no clear defining issue. A new deal coalition is not going to be formed until the next huge national issue. I say a dead lock because our nation's politics are struggling to find the ground between conservative and liberal and we can't make any "progressive" movements because of it. By next election things will change for the Republican party. Parties change to appeal to voters, the Republicans aren't stupid their just building their voting block. It may not be the best one but it gives them the best chance. The Republican party will not be thrown into disarray like you say. I think this election might even give them an edge for the future. They could blame the democrats for the failure of a new liberal movement.
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Posted 11 April 2012 - 09:50 PM
much as the Democratic party was the party of hippies and communists for so many years. That would represent a fundamental shift in American politics and a great leap forward for social progress.
That is a misconception. The 1960's where close elections because the voting blocks were changing. Hippies and communists played a minuscule role in american politics. Remember the silent majority. Democrats were very similar to republicans but they were marred by failures of the cold war publicized by the so called hippies.
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